Chapter 24: The Dragon Moves – Taiwan and the Three-Day Siege (May–June 2025)

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The Bear and the Eagle

Volume 4: Year Four – A Dangerous New Order (2025)

May – June 2025
Taipei – Beijing – Washington D.C. – Tokyo – Canberra – Manila – Shanghai

While the world reeled from the Israeli–Iranian confrontation, another fuse was quietly lit—this time in the Pacific. With U.S. attention consumed by the Middle East and internal political battles, China saw a rare strategic window to test, pressure, and possibly coerce Taiwan into submission.

The Dragon, patient and calculating, moved. Not with tanks or bombs at first, but with encirclement, electronic blackouts, and grey-zone pressure. For three days, Taiwan was cut off, the world unsure if it was witnessing a drill, a prelude to war—or the end of a free nation.

Xi Jinping’s Moment

On 1 May 2025, China’s Politburo Standing Committee held an unscheduled overnight session in Zhongnanhai. According to intelligence leaks:

  • Xi Jinping had grown increasingly convinced the U.S. was unwilling to risk major war for Taiwan
  • Trump’s reduced engagement with Pacific allies signalled a declining appetite for intervention
  • The Israeli strike on Iran showed that regional actors now act without superpower consensus

Two days later, the PLA Eastern Theatre Command initiated Joint Sword II—a “routine military exercise” quickly revealed to be anything but routine.

Day 1 – The Isolation

5 May 2025, 04:00 local time:

  • Over 80 PLA Navy vessels, including two aircraft carriers (Fujian and Shandong), formed a naval ring around Taiwan
  • PLA Air Force deployed bomber squadrons and fighter patrols, penetrating Taiwan’s ADIZ (Air Defence Identification Zone) from north, east, and southwest
  • Satellite and submarine cables linking Taiwan to the global internet were electronically jammed and partially severed, causing:
    • 72% drop in global data traffic
    • Taipei Stock Exchange to freeze
    • Loss of GPS-based navigation for aircraft and maritime vessels

Chinese drones circled over Penghu and Kinmen Islands, dropping propaganda leaflets warning of an imminent “unification process”.

Taiwan’s Ministry of Defence declared:

“We are under siege—not by bombs, but by a blockade.”

Day 2 – The Strategic Silence

The world struggled to respond coherently.

  • Washington called the manoeuvre “highly provocative,” but stopped short of calling it an invasion
  • Tokyo raised its alert status, deploying Aegis destroyers to the Miyako Strait
  • Australia, Philippines, and India issued condemnations but offered no immediate military movement
  • European leaders, still reeling from the Iran crisis and energy inflation, called for “restraint on all sides”

Privately, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) requested deployment orders for:

  • Two carrier strike groups (USS Ronald Reagan and USS Gerald R. Ford)
  • A squadron of F-22 Raptors to Andersen AFB, Guam
  • Submarine operations around Bashi Channel and Luzon Strait

But President Trump, attending a rally in Ohio, told reporters:

“Taiwan’s a complex issue. Maybe they should’ve made a deal years ago.”

The ambiguity stunned allies.

Day 3 – The Internal Strain

Inside Taiwan, fear turned to determination:

  • President Lai Ching-te addressed the nation underground, invoking 1949 and 1996: “We will not kneel. We are not Hong Kong. This is our island. This is our choice.”
  • Taiwan’s military went on full mobilisation:
    • 1.8 million reservists activated
    • Anti-ship missile batteries positioned along the east coast, facing Chinese vessels
    • F-16s and Mirage fighters scrambled around the clock despite fuel rationing

Civil society adapted:

  • VPNs routed through emergency satellites
  • Citizen militias began air raid and survival drills
  • Crowdfunding campaigns abroad raised $210 million in 48 hours

Internationally:

  • Global semiconductor stocks plummeted
  • Apple, TSMC, Nvidia, and Intel halted operations in Taiwan
  • Global tech leaders held a crisis summit in Seoul, warning: “Taiwan’s fall would trigger the largest supply chain collapse since WWII.”

De-escalation – Or Just Delay?

On 8 May 2025, China abruptly declared the exercise complete, withdrawing air and naval forces.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry claimed:

“The drill served its purpose: to remind separatists and their foreign enablers that reunification is inevitable.”

No shots had been fired. No treaties had been signed. But the message was clear:

  • China could isolate Taiwan at will
  • The West might not intervene quickly—or decisively
  • Taiwan’s independence was functionally more vulnerable than ever

In a classified White House Situation Room transcript, Trump allegedly asked:

“Why are we risking a world war over a chip factory?”

This leaked line ricocheted across allied capitals.

Conclusion: Siege Without Shells

Taiwan survived, but not unscarred:

  • Trust in U.S. defence guarantees waned
  • Semiconductor giants began planning redundant facilities in Japan, Arizona, and India
  • PLA strategists analysed real-time response lags from NATO and QUAD members, refining plans for “Joint Sword III”

In Taipei, graffiti appeared overnight near Songshan Airport:

“Three days in silence. But we still speak.”

In Beijing, the Global Times editorialised:

“No war was needed. Only the shadow of one.”

And across the world, a new chapter of Cold War tension was inked—not in Berlin or Baghdad, but in Taiwan’s invisible blockade.

The Dragon had moved. The Eagle hesitated. And the Bear watched.

References

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