Nigeria’s Faith and Power – A Journey Through Religion, Politics, and Society
Nigeria has never conducted an official census that includes religion since 1963, largely because the question is seen as too politically sensitive in a nation almost evenly divided between Muslims and Christians. All subsequent figures are therefore estimates drawn from surveys, academic studies, and projections by organisations such as Pew Research Center, the CIA World Factbook, and Afrobarometer. While exact numbers vary, the broad trends are clear: both Islam and Christianity have grown dramatically at the expense of traditional African religions, and the Muslim-Christian ratio has shifted only modestly over six decades.
At the Dawn of Military Rule (1963–1966)
The 1963 census – the last to ask about religion – recorded:
- Muslim: 47.2%
- Christian: 34.3%
- Traditional/Other: 18.5%
Ratio (Muslim:Christian): approximately 1.38:1
Islam was already the largest single group, concentrated in the North, while Christianity was expanding rapidly in the South and Middle Belt through missionary activity.
At the End of Military Rule (1999)
Late-1990s estimates placed the population at around 120 million:
- Muslim: ~50%
- Christian: ~40–42%
- Traditional/Other: ~8–10%
Ratio (Muslim:Christian): approximately 1.25:1
Both faiths had gained ground, but Christianity’s share grew faster during this period, narrowing the gap slightly as traditional beliefs declined sharply.
At the Start of the Fourth Republic (1999)
The demographic picture remained essentially the same as above – a slight Muslim plurality with Christians closing the gap through evangelism, urbanisation, and higher education levels in the South.
Today (2024–2025 Estimates)
With a population exceeding 230 million, current projections (averaging Pew, CIA, USCIRF, and Afrobarometer data) show:
- Muslim: ~53–56% (most commonly cited around 53–54%)
- Christian: ~43–48% (around 45%)
- Traditional/Other: less than 2–5%
Ratio (Muslim:Christian): approximately 1.18:1
Key drivers of change:
- Higher fertility rates in the predominantly Muslim North (average ~5.5 children per woman vs ~4.5 in the Christian South).
- Continued Christian growth through conversions and urban migration.
- Near-elimination of traditional African religions as a major category.
The Muslim share has edged upwards since 1999, primarily due to demographic momentum in the North, but the overall balance remains remarkably close. This near parity explains why religious identity plays such a central role in Nigerian politics: neither community can dominate without accommodating the other, and any perceived imbalance quickly becomes a national issue.
References: 1963 Nigerian Census; Pew Research Center, “The Future of World Religions” (2015) and “Tolerance and Tension: Islam and Christianity in Sub-Saharan Africa” (2010); CIA World Factbook (2018–2024 entries); Afrobarometer surveys (2022); USCIRF Annual Reports (2024–2025).
Next Episode: Geography of Faith: North, South, and the Mixed Middle Belt
(Mapping which regions of Nigeria are predominantly Muslim, Christian, or mixed, and identifying the zones of greatest religious tension)