Nigeria’s Faith and Power – A Journey Through Religion, Politics, and Society
For sixteen uninterrupted years, from the return to civilian rule in 1999 until 2015, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) dominated Nigeria’s political landscape. The party’s grip on the presidency ended dramatically in the 2015 election when incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan – a Christian from the South South region – became the first sitting Nigerian leader to be defeated at the polls.
Jonathan, an Ijaw from Bayelsa State, had assumed the presidency in 2010 following the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. He won a full term in 2011 but faced mounting challenges by 2015. His defeat by Muhammadu Buhari of the newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC) marked a historic power shift and the beginning of APC rule that continues today under Bola Tinubu.
Several interconnected factors contributed to Jonathan’s loss and the collapse of PDP dominance:
- Security Crisis: The Boko Haram insurgency escalated dramatically during Jonathan’s tenure. The 2014 abduction of over 270 schoolgirls from Chibok became a global symbol of government weakness. Many Nigerians perceived the administration as ineffective in combating terrorism, while Buhari – a retired Major-General and former military head of state – campaigned on a promise to defeat the insurgents decisively.
- Economic Difficulties: A sharp decline in global oil prices exposed Nigeria’s over-dependence on crude exports. Revenue plummeted, the naira weakened, and fuel subsidies became unsustainable. Voters associated these hardships with PDP mismanagement after years in power.
- Corruption Allegations: High-profile scandals, including allegations of billions of dollars missing from oil revenues and irregularities in arms procurement, damaged the government’s reputation. Buhari’s campaign slogan – “I belong to everybody and I belong to nobody” – resonated as a pledge of integrity and anti-corruption.
- Opposition Unity and PDP Fractures: Internal divisions within the PDP led to the defection of key figures, including five governors and influential lawmakers, who helped form the APC in 2013. The opposition merger created a formidable coalition capable of challenging the ruling party nationwide.
- Regional and Religious Dynamics: While not the sole factor, Jonathan’s southern Christian identity contrasted with Buhari’s northern Muslim background, reinforcing existing regional voting patterns.
On 28 March 2015, Buhari secured 15.4 million votes (53.96%) against Jonathan’s 12.8 million (44.96%). In a widely praised act of statesmanship, Jonathan conceded defeat before official results were fully announced, helping to avert potential post-election violence.
The 2015 transition ended the longest stretch of one-party dominance in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic and set the stage for APC rule: eight years under Buhari (2015–2023), followed by Tinubu’s presidency from 2023 onward. It also reinforced the informal practice of alternating power between the predominantly Muslim North and predominantly Christian South – a convention that would again come under scrutiny in the 2023 Muslim-Muslim ticket.
References: INEC official results (2015); Jonathan’s concession statement (March 2015); analyses from the Council on Foreign Relations and Chatham House; Buhari campaign materials; biographical accounts of Goodluck Jonathan.
Next Episode: Christian or Muslim Rule? Mapping Nigeria’s Leadership History
(A comprehensive review of every Nigerian head of state since independence in 1960, calculating the total years under Muslim and Christian leadership)