Chapter 1: The Night That Changed the World

, , ,

The Bear and the Eagle

Volume 1: The Unexpected Victory (2016–2017)

8 November 2016
Trump Tower, New York City

The evening began with uncertainty. Inside Trump Tower, the Republican candidate was surrounded by a tight circle of advisors. The polls, according to nearly every major outlet—The New York Times, CNN, FiveThirtyEight—had forecasted a Hillary Clinton victory. Even Donald Trump himself, later recalling the moment, admitted he had not prepared a victory speech (Woodward & Costa, 2018).

Across the world, from Berlin to Brussels, Moscow to Beijing, foreign governments watched the unfolding results. Some with dismay. Some with quiet anticipation.

By midnight, it became clear: the projections were wrong. Swing states began to fall—Florida, North Carolina, Ohio. Then Pennsylvania. By 2:30 a.m., Hillary Clinton had called to concede. Donald J. Trump, a political outsider with no prior public office experience, had been elected the 45th President of the United States.

Cheers erupted in Trump Tower, but the world outside was stunned.

9 November 2016
The Kremlin, Moscow

In Moscow, President Vladimir Putin received the news in measured silence. According to Russian state media (RT, 2016), Putin was one of the first world leaders to send official congratulations. In a televised address, he expressed hope for “constructive dialogue between Moscow and Washington based on principles of equality and mutual respect.”

But the context was complicated. For months, the American intelligence community had been investigating what would soon be made public: Russian interference in the 2016 election through cyber operations and disinformation campaigns.

On the same day, Putin ordered champagne for senior staff at the Duma (Russian parliament), and according to multiple reports, a mood of quiet celebration broke out in official circles (BBC News, 2016).

The Intelligence Community Responds

By early January 2017, the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence released a declassified report stating with “high confidence” that “Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 aimed at the U.S. presidential election” (ODNI, 2017). The report cited hacking of Democratic National Committee emails and coordinated social media campaigns via entities such as the Internet Research Agency.

Trump, however, continued to cast doubt on the intelligence assessments, calling them part of a political witch hunt.

The Trump Transition

In the weeks leading up to the inauguration, the transition team navigated an uneasy balancing act. Trump had made repeated public statements suggesting warmer ties with Moscow, including questioning the future of NATO, which he called “obsolete” (The Times, 2017). These remarks alarmed European allies but were welcomed in Moscow.

At the same time, Trump nominated several hawkish figures to his cabinet, including General James Mattis as Secretary of Defence—known for his strong stance against Russian aggression.

In a private phone call on 28 January 2017—just eight days after inauguration—Trump and Putin spoke for the first time since the election. The Kremlin described the exchange as “positive” and focusing on cooperation in defeating terrorism, particularly ISIS (Reuters, 2017). However, no immediate diplomatic breakthroughs followed.

International Reaction

NATO leaders scrambled to assess the new dynamic. In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel warned against abandoning Western values in favour of nationalist populism. In Brussels, the European Commission convened emergency strategy sessions.

Meanwhile, Chinese state media published editorials urging the U.S. to avoid protectionism and trade wars—a concern that would soon be realised.

A Fractured Domestic Scene

In Washington D.C., protests erupted on Inauguration Day. The Women’s March, held on 21 January 2017, drew over 4 million participants across the U.S., the largest single-day protest in American history (Washington Post, 2017).

Despite this, Trump maintained his combative tone. He used Twitter to attack critics, dismiss the Russia allegations as “fake news,” and repeatedly questioned the legitimacy of the intelligence community’s conclusions.

Foundations of a Relationship

The early phase of the Trump–Putin dynamic was defined by mutual signalling more than substance. Trump admired Putin’s strength and authority; Putin viewed Trump as a disruptor of Western liberal consensus and a potential wedge in the transatlantic alliance.

Yet trust was never complete. Both men were pragmatists. Both saw the relationship not through sentiment, but leverage.

This was only the beginning.

References

Home