Chapter 10: War Clouds over Kyiv – Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion (February 2022)

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The Bear and the Eagle

Volume 2: The Biden–Xi Reset or Rivalry (2021–2022)

January – February 2022
Moscow – Kyiv – Washington – Brussels – Beijing

For years, the world had tolerated Russia’s slow-motion aggression in Ukraine. The 2014 annexation of Crimea, the simmering war in Donbas, and the steady erosion of Ukrainian sovereignty became tragic constants. But in early 2022, those war clouds broke, and history changed once more.
Vladimir Putin launched the largest military invasion on European soil since 1945.

The West, caught between its own past appeasement and present disbelief, scrambled to respond. The U.S.–Russia rivalry, once centred on disinformation and sanctions, had exploded into a full-scale conventional war—with global consequences.

Prelude to Invasion: The Final Warnings

In January 2022, U.S. intelligence agencies—unusually public in their assessments—warned of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. Satellite imagery and troop movements showed over 150,000 Russian soldiers amassing on Ukraine’s northern, eastern, and southern borders.

The Biden administration, in coordination with NATO and the EU, issued repeated warnings:

  • Secretary of State Antony Blinken addressed the UN on 17 February, stating:

“Every indication we have is that they are ready to go.”

  • President Biden warned that Russia would face unprecedented sanctions if it attacked, but explicitly ruled out direct U.S. military engagement.

Putin dismissed the warnings as “Western hysteria.” Russian diplomats, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, insisted Moscow had “no intention” of invading.

Then came 21 February 2022.

Putin gave a nationally televised address declaring Russia’s recognition of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) as independent states. The speech was laced with historical revisionism, denying Ukrainian sovereignty and blaming NATO expansion for “leaving Russia with no choice” (Kremlin.ru, 2022).

Three days later, tanks crossed the border.

24 February 2022 – Invasion Day

At dawn, Russia launched a three-pronged assault:

  • From the north via Belarus, targeting Kyiv
  • From the east through Donbas
  • From the south via Crimea, advancing on Kherson and Mariupol

Cruise missiles struck airfields and military depots across Ukraine. Explosions were heard in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Lviv. Russian paratroopers attempted to seize Antonov Airport, just 15 miles from the capital.

Putin declared the start of a “special military operation,” aiming for the “demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine.”
The world understood: this was war.

Global Shock and the Western Response

Within hours, condemnation poured in:

  • NATO activated its Response Force for the first time in its history.
  • The European Union, long hesitant, moved swiftly:
    • SWIFT banking bans
    • Freezing of Russian Central Bank assets
    • Bans on Russian airlines and propaganda channels like RT and Sputnik
  • President Biden addressed the American people on 24 February:

“Putin is the aggressor. Putin chose this war. And now he and his country will bear the consequences.”
— White House, 2022

Biden announced a package of crippling economic sanctions, including on:

  • Sberbank and VTB, Russia’s largest banks
  • Russian oligarchs and their families
  • Export controls targeting semiconductors and advanced technology

Ukrainian Resistance and Zelenskyy’s Defiance

Despite predictions that Kyiv would fall within 72 hours, Ukraine held.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who had refused evacuation offers, famously declared:

“I need ammunition, not a ride.”
— Kyiv, 25 February 2022 (BBC, 2022)

Zelenskyy’s daily video messages, broadcast from the capital under siege, inspired not only Ukrainians but the world. Within days, ordinary citizens had taken up arms, built Molotov cocktails, and resisted armoured columns with homemade barricades.

Ukraine’s early battlefield successes—including halting the 40-mile convoy outside Kyiv—surprised even Western analysts.

Putin’s plan for a quick decapitation strike had failed.

Putin’s Isolation and China’s Ambiguity

Putin now faced the consequences of overreach:

  • Russia was diplomatically isolated—even neutral Switzerland joined sanctions.
  • The UN General Assembly, on 2 March, passed a resolution condemning the invasion:
    • 141 in favour, 5 against, 35 abstentions (including China and India)

China, though officially supporting “territorial integrity,” echoed Russia’s blame on NATO and called for “restraint on all sides.” Beijing walked a strategic tightrope—opposing U.S. sanctions while quietly avoiding secondary sanction risk (CSIS, 2022).

Russia’s remaining allies—Belarus, Syria, North Korea, Eritrea—only underscored its isolation.

Information War and Western Unity

For once, the West won the information war. U.S. intelligence had pre-emptively exposed Russian false flag operations, predicted invasion timelines, and debunked Kremlin disinformation in real time.

Western tech companies:

  • Demonetised Russian state media
  • Blocked military surveillance apps
  • Enabled Ukrainian digital mobilisation tools, including facial recognition software to identify dead Russian soldiers

Meanwhile, Putin tightened domestic censorship:

  • Criminalised calling the war a “war”
  • Shut down independent outlets like TV Rain and Echo of Moscow
  • Blocked Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter

Russia was retreating into a digital iron curtain.

Conclusion: The Return of History

With war underway, the 21st century’s illusions shattered. The age of “endless peace” in Europe was over. America had re-emerged as the cornerstone of Western defence. NATO, once described by Trump as “obsolete,” found new purpose.

But the cost was incalculable:

  • Thousands dead within weeks
  • Over 4 million Ukrainian refugees in the first month (UNHCR, 2022)
  • Global inflation, food insecurity, and rising energy prices

And most of all: a future once believed post-war, now definitively post-peace.

The Bear had mauled, and the Eagle had stirred.

But the war had only begun.

References

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