The Bear and the Eagle

Volume 2: The Biden–Xi Reset or Rivalry (2021–2022)

January – June 2023
Bakhmut – Kyiv – Moscow – Minsk – Washington – Beijing

As 2023 dawned, the war in Ukraine settled into a new and brutal phase—no longer one of sweeping offensives, but of grinding attrition, strategic endurance, and diplomatic recalibration.

The eyes of the world turned to the eastern city of Bakhmut, where tens of thousands of soldiers from both sides bled for control of a shattered city of little strategic value but immense symbolic weight.
Simultaneously, fears of a second front via Belarus, and deepening ties between Russia and China, raised the stakes of the broader global confrontation.

Bakhmut: The Meat Grinder

Located in the Donetsk oblast, Bakhmut became the focus of the most intense combat since the battles of Severodonetsk and Mariupol. The city, once home to 70,000 people, was reduced to rubble as artillery fire, trench assaults, and close-quarter combat dominated the terrain.

From January to May 2023, Russia threw waves of forces into the battle, led primarily by the Wagner Group, a state-backed mercenary company run by Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Wagner relied on prisoner conscripts, promised amnesty after six months on the front.
Ukrainian defenders, mostly from the 93rd Mechanised Brigade and territorial units, held out for over 8 months, despite encirclement threats.

Casualty estimates were staggering:

Over 20,000 Russian dead, including many Wagner fighters (Pentagon Leak, 2023)
Ukrainian losses were also high, but kept confidential by Kyiv

By 20 May 2023, Wagner claimed full control of Bakhmut. The Ukrainian military acknowledged a tactical withdrawal—but not without cost to the invaders.

President Zelenskyy, speaking at the G7 summit in Hiroshima, compared Bakhmut to a “scorched wound” and vowed that it would be retaken.

The Belarus Factor: Threats from the North

In parallel, concerns rose over the role of Belarus, Russia’s closest ally and launchpad for the original Kyiv offensive in February 2022.

Key developments:

Belarusian forces continued joint exercises with Russian troops near the Ukrainian border.
In March 2023, Putin announced plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus—the first time since the end of the Cold War that Russia would deploy nuclear arms abroad (RIA Novosti, 2023).
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko maintained he was not party to the war but supported Russia’s “security concerns.”

NATO responded by reinforcing its eastern flank, particularly in Poland and Lithuania, with rotating U.S. and German brigades.

The fear of a second northern invasion never materialised, but the threat diverted Ukrainian forces from the main front, straining Kyiv’s resources.

Putin’s Domestic Pressure and the Wagner Rebellion

Despite battlefield losses, Putin remained defiant.
His annual Victory Day speech on 9 May 2023 invoked “existential threats” from the West and portrayed the war as a righteous continuation of Russia’s WWII legacy.

Yet tensions grew inside Russia’s own war machine:

Yevgeny Prigozhin, increasingly vocal, accused the Russian Ministry of Defence of incompetence, and threatened to withdraw Wagner from Bakhmut unless ammunition was supplied.
Internal Telegram channels revealed fractures between regular army commanders and mercenary leaders, a dangerous sign for Kremlin command cohesion.

Though temporarily reconciled, these tensions would explode weeks later in a dramatic rebellion (see Volume 3).

China and the “Peace Proposal”

In February 2023, on the anniversary of the invasion, China released a 12-point “position paper” calling for:

A ceasefire
Respect for sovereignty (without naming Russia as the aggressor)
Dialogue over confrontation
Opposition to unilateral sanctions

Western leaders dismissed the proposal as pro-Kremlin in tone and vague in substance. Still, China’s role as a potential broker alarmed Washington.

President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow in March 2023 cemented the China–Russia axis:

“Right now there are changes—the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years—and we are driving these changes together.”
— Xi Jinping to Putin, Kremlin, March 2023 (Reuters, 2023)

The signal was clear: China would not abandon Russia, even if it did not yet support it militarily.

U.S. and NATO’s Strategic Patience

The Biden administration adopted a policy of “strategic patience with muscular support”:

Approved a new $2.6 billion weapons package in April
Accelerated deliveries of armoured vehicles, bridging systems, and mine-clearing equipment
Worked with European allies to establish the “Coalition for F-16 Training”, preparing for eventual fighter aircraft transfers to Ukraine

The Vilnius NATO Summit (July 2023) was already anticipated as a major turning point, where Ukrainian accession pathways, long-term security guarantees, and Western resolve would be tested.

The War of Wills

By mid-2023, both sides had transitioned to a war of endurance:

Ukraine prepared a major counteroffensive, aiming to sever Russian land bridges to Crimea.
Russia dug in, fortifying defensive lines, mining fields, and betting on Western fatigue.

The battle for Bakhmut, like Verdun or Stalingrad before it, became not a turning point—but a symbol of attrition, sacrifice, and willpower.

Both the eagle and the bear were bloodied.

But neither had blinked.

References

Pentagon Intelligence Leak. (2023). Casualty Estimates in Ukraine War. Published via The Washington Post, April 2023.
RIA Novosti. (2023, March 25). Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. https://ria.ru
Reuters. (2023, March 22). Xi and Putin pledge to reshape global order. https://www.reuters.com
Institute for the Study of War. (2023). Bakhmut Situation Reports. https://www.understandingwar.org

Chapter 13: Bakhmut, Belarus, and the Battle for 2023