Chapter 14: The Counteroffensive Begins – Zaporizhzhia, Sea Drones, and Crimea’s Shadow

The Bear and the Eagle

Volume 2: The Biden–Xi Reset or Rivalry (2021–2022)

June – September 2023
Zaporizhzhia – Melitopol – Crimea – Kyiv – Moscow – Black Sea

After months of anticipation, Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive was finally underway. It was not a blitzkrieg—it was a slow, deliberate push through the most heavily mined battlefield in Europe since World War II.

But as the ground war crawled through fields and trenches, a second front opened at sea and in the skies. With bold strikes on Crimea, shipyards, and supply lines, Ukraine signalled that the heart of Russia’s war machine was no longer safe.

In the summer of 2023, the battlefield widened, the stakes rose, and the dream of reclaiming Crimea moved from fantasy to strategic planning.

The Ground Push: Zaporizhzhia Front

The long-awaited counteroffensive began in early June 2023, focused primarily on southern Ukraine, in the Zaporizhzhia oblast. The main objective:
Break through Russian lines to reach Melitopol and sever the land corridor to Crimea.

Ukrainian forces—newly equipped with:

  • German Leopard 2 tanks
  • U.S. Bradley infantry vehicles
  • British Challenger 2s
  • NATO-trained assault brigades

— faced entrenched Russian positions layered with:

  • Minefields stretching kilometres deep
  • Anti-tank traps and trenches
  • Pre-sighted artillery zones

Progress was measured in metres, not miles.

Early Ukrainian losses were significant, including several Western armoured vehicles destroyed by mines and drones. But Kyiv adapted:

  • Shifted tactics to combined arms light infantry assaults
  • Increased use of artillery duels, drones, and night operations
  • Recaptured villages such as Robotyne and Urozhaine, pushing toward Tokmak, a key logistical hub (ISW, 2023)

The Sea Turns Hostile: Naval Drones and Black Sea Chaos

While the land war dragged, Ukraine stunned the world with a new class of weapons:
Naval kamikaze drones, small remote-controlled boats laden with explosives.

Key attacks included:

  • 17 July 2023: Ukrainian sea drones targeted the Kerch Bridge, damaging a critical supply route to Crimea
  • 13 September 2023: A drone and missile strike severely damaged Russia’s Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol
  • Several Russian landing ships and patrol vessels were destroyed or disabled, forcing the fleet to relocate away from Crimea

Ukraine had turned the Black Sea into a contested zone, using asymmetric warfare to compensate for its lack of a navy.

Russia responded with intensified missile strikes on port cities, including Odesa and Mykolaiv, targeting grain facilities and infrastructure.

Crimea: From Untouchable to Vulnerable

Until 2023, Crimea had been a red line—a territory Putin annexed in 2014 and heavily fortified since.

That changed with:

  • Precision strikes on airbases in Saky, Dzhankoi, and Simferopol
  • Ukrainian special forces raids via sea and helicopter landings
  • The development of Ukrainian-made drones and long-range missiles, some capable of reaching 500+ km

Western officials began quietly shifting tone:

  • Jake Sullivan, U.S. National Security Advisor, said the U.S. would not prevent Ukraine from striking Russian targets in Crimea
  • UK and Baltic states openly supported operations into Crimea

For the first time since 2014, Crimea was no longer considered invulnerable.

Russian Defence and Internal Fractures

In response to Ukraine’s momentum:

  • Putin replaced General Sergei Surovikin with Valery Gerasimov as commander of operations—a reshuffling reflecting tension within the General Staff
  • Russian lines hardened, with new dragon’s teeth obstacles, conscript reinforcements, and expanded use of drones from Iran
  • Wagner forces were pulled back after their Bakhmut campaign, and tensions with the Defence Ministry worsened (this would culminate in the mutiny of June 2023—detailed in Volume III)

Despite losses, Russia retained control of over 17% of Ukrainian territory by September 2023.

But the pressure was growing.

Grain, NATO, and the Diplomatic Front

In parallel, diplomatic storms brewed:

  • Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023, threatening global food security
  • NATO’s Vilnius Summit (July 2023) reaffirmed long-term support for Ukraine:
    • Created the NATO–Ukraine Council
    • Announced future guarantees modelled on the Israeli defence partnership model
    • Delayed full NATO membership—but promised expedited pathways

Meanwhile, China remained cautious, reiterating its neutral stance while deepening trade with Russia.

Turkey, once a broker, pivoted back toward NATO interests after internal political recalibration.

Global Perception and Strategic Patience

In the global south, opinions remained mixed:

  • India, hosting the G20 Summit in September 2023, did not condemn Russia outright but refused to endorse territorial annexations
  • African nations, hit by grain and fuel inflation, voiced concern but avoided alignment

In Washington and Brussels, analysts concluded:
2023 was not the year Ukraine would win the war.
But it was the year Ukraine demonstrated it could never again be conquered.

Conclusion: Momentum Without Illusion

By the end of September:

  • Ukraine had pierced the first of Russia’s defensive lines
  • The Black Sea was no longer fully Russian
  • Crimea was under permanent strategic pressure
  • Western military aid had proved essential but not omnipotent

Putin was betting that time, mines, and winter would blunt the counteroffensive.
Zelenskyy was betting that the spirit of resistance and the West’s endurance would hold.

Neither side was wrong.
But both sides knew: the outcome was no longer measured in months—but in how long the world would care to watch.

References

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