The Bear and the Eagle
Volume 2: The Biden–Xi Reset or Rivalry (2021–2022)
October – December 2023
Kyiv – Moscow – Washington – Brussels – Tel Aviv – Beijing
By the final quarter of 2023, the war in Ukraine had settled into a grim rhythm: incremental gains, persistent losses, and a deepening sense of global fatigue.
The great offensives of the summer had yielded territorial shifts—but not breakthroughs. Both Russia and Ukraine dug in. Meanwhile, the rest of the world faced rising inflation, diplomatic realignment, and recessionary tremors, driven by the enduring effects of war, sanctions, and disruption in global trade.
But while the ground war slowed, the air and economic fronts accelerated—with drones, debt, and diplomacy becoming the key weapons in the final months of 2023.
A War of Drones and Attrition
The most significant military development in late 2023 was the exponential rise of drone warfare:
- Ukraine, aided by Western partners and domestic innovation, deployed:
- Long-range naval drones striking Sevastopol and Russian oil tankers
- Kamikaze drones over Moscow and border regions like Belgorod
- FPV (first-person view) drones to target Russian trenches and vehicles with low-cost precision
- Russia, bolstered by Iranian support, escalated its own drone attacks:
- Daily use of Shahed-136 suicide drones
- Hybrid barrages mixing drones with missiles to overwhelm air defences
- Targeting Ukraine’s energy grid and grain export infrastructure
Ukraine’s air defences—NASAMS, IRIS-T, Patriots—intercepted most large threats, but power blackouts returned, especially in Kharkiv and Odesa.
Russia fortified its defensive lines with:
- Anti-drone jamming systems
- Retrained infantry units
- Layered fortifications across Zaporizhzhia and Luhansk
The war had become a contest of exhaustion, with no clear winner, but no side retreating.
Diplomatic Cold Fronts and War Fatigue
While battle lines froze, diplomatic lines strained:
- Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive failed to achieve a full breakthrough, causing:
- Renewed debate in Washington over the scale of U.S. military aid
- Frustration in Berlin and Paris, where publics began questioning the long-term cost
- Republican leaders in the U.S. House, including Speaker Mike Johnson, demanded: “Aid to Ukraine must be tied to U.S. border security and fiscal restraint.”
- President Biden, preparing for a re-election campaign, faced mounting political pressure to balance support with caution.
Meanwhile, in Beijing, China maintained strategic neutrality, but:
- Increased imports of Russian energy
- Expanded dual-use technology transfers
- Hosted multiple Global South forums, subtly presenting China as a stabilising alternative to U.S.-led geopolitics
The Middle East Distraction: October 7
On 7 October 2023, Hamas launched an unprecedented attack on Israel, killing over 1,000 civilians. Israel responded with a massive bombardment of Gaza.
The sudden explosion of violence:
- Pulled Western attention away from Ukraine
- Redirected U.S. diplomatic bandwidth and military assets to the Middle East
- Opened Russian and Iranian propaganda opportunities, portraying the West as morally inconsistent
Putin condemned the civilian casualties in Gaza but also:
“Highlighted the consequences of unchecked Western interventionism.”
Zelenskyy, Jewish and deeply tied to Israel diplomatically, called for solidarity among democracies under attack.
But the moment shifted the spotlight, and Western unity on Ukraine wavered as war fatigue took hold.
Economic Crossfire and Recession Risk
The global economy began to show serious signs of strain:
- Oil prices fluctuated due to dual crises in Ukraine and the Middle East
- The Black Sea grain corridor, briefly revived with Qatari and Turkish mediation, collapsed again after Russian strikes on Odesa ports
- Inflation surged in:
- Sub-Saharan Africa (due to food shortages)
- Europe (due to energy uncertainty)
- South Asia (due to fertiliser constraints)
Global GDP growth forecasts were cut:
- IMF: from 3.0% to 2.4% for 2024
- World Bank warned of a possible global stagflation cycle—low growth, high prices, and political instability
Cyber Escalation and Intelligence Wars
Both sides leaned heavily on non-kinetic tools:
- Russian cyber attacks targeted:
- Ukrainian hospital and energy infrastructure
- U.S. logistics and satellite systems
- European rail and air control systems, leading to brief service disruptions in Germany and Poland
- Ukraine, with support from private cybersecurity firms and Western intelligence, penetrated Russian military command chains, disrupting supply operations and sowing disinformation among units
The CIA, MI6, and BND increased covert support to partisan networks inside occupied Ukraine, while Russia expanded digital surveillance across its military and domestic sphere.
Conclusion: Strategic Deadlock, Political Drift
By the final days of 2023:
- Ukraine had clawed back territory, but not decisively
- Russia had held the line, but with unsustainable losses
- The West remained committed, but fractured in stamina
The Eagle was burdened—carrying multiple global crises.
The Bear, though bleeding, still snarled.
The world watched as 2024 loomed, uncertain whether the war would end, deepen, or spread.
And in the silence of attrition, the real question emerged:
Would the future be decided by military victory—or by who tired first?
References
- IMF. (2023, Oct). World Economic Outlook – Global Slowdown and War Impact. https://www.imf.org
- NATO. (2023, Nov). Intelligence Briefing: Drone Warfare in Ukraine. https://www.nato.int
- Reuters. (2023, Oct 9). Ukraine fears loss of global attention as Israel war intensifies. https://www.reuters.com
- BBC. (2023, Dec 2). Russia strikes Odesa grain port, killing exports again. https://www.bbc.co.uk
- World Bank. (2023). Global Economic Prospects – Winter Update. https://www.worldbank.org