Chapter 18: Tehran, Taiwan, and the Multipolar Chessboard (April–June 2024)

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The Bear and the Eagle

Volume 3: Year Three – Unfinished Wars and Uncertain Worlds (2024–2025)

April – June 2024
Tehran – Taipei – Moscow – Kyiv – Washington – Beijing – Jerusalem

As spring unfolded in 2024, the war in Ukraine remained centre stage, but it was no longer the only game in town. The world’s attention was now pulled in multiple directions—Iran’s nuclear brinkmanship, China’s Taiwan manoeuvres, and an increasingly unstable Middle East.

The post-Cold War order had not just frayed—it had split into competing spheres. Western democracies, Eurasian autocracies, and non-aligned nations began playing a multipolar chess game, each pursuing strategic advantage amid global exhaustion.

And so, as the Bear dug in, the Eagle scanned the horizon, realising it faced not one adversary—but a confluence of coordinated pressures.

Iran on the Edge: Nuclear Crisis Reignited

In April 2024, the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) reported that Iran had enriched uranium to over 84% purity—just short of weapons-grade.

This triggered:

  • Emergency consultations in Vienna, involving the P5+1 (U.S., UK, France, China, Russia, Germany)
  • A sharp warning from Israel, whose Defence Minister stated: “We will not allow Iran to reach nuclear breakout—diplomatically or otherwise.”
  • Increased military activity:
    • Israel deployed submarines to the Red Sea
    • The U.S. repositioned B-52s and Aegis destroyers in the Gulf
    • Iran escalated threats via proxy militias in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen

Tehran accused the West of hypocrisy, citing its support for Israel and failure to uphold the JCPOA.
But analysts noted Iran was leveraging the Ukraine conflict and U.S. distraction to advance its own aims.

Taiwan Tensions: Simulated Siege and Strategic Messaging

On 5 May 2024, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched its largest-ever military exercises around Taiwan, including:

  • Simulated blockades of major ports
  • Cyberattacks targeting Taiwan’s financial infrastructure
  • Drone flyovers and ballistic missile tests into surrounding waters

China claimed it was a response to:

  • A U.S. congressional delegation’s visit to Taipei
  • Taiwan’s Vice President attending the World Democracy Forum in Prague
  • New arms sales from the U.S., including Patriot PAC-3 systems and naval radar upgrades

President Xi declared:

“Any attempt to separate Taiwan from China will be crushed by historical necessity.”

Washington responded cautiously—reaffirming the One China Policy, but increasing naval patrols through the Taiwan Strait and authorising joint drills with Japan and the Philippines.

The goal: Deterrence without provocation.

Russia’s Diplomacy of Disruption

Meanwhile, Russia seized on the global disorder to advance its multipolar ambitions.

Putin met with:

  • Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran (April), signing a strategic oil and military pact
  • Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Harbin (May), reaffirming the “no limits” partnership
  • North Korean officials, reportedly to arrange artillery exchanges in return for energy and grain

Russia intensified outreach to African and Latin American nations, offering:

  • Discounted fuel and fertilisers
  • Anti-Western cyber training
  • Covert support for authoritarian regimes facing domestic protest

In return, these nations abstained or supported Russia in key UN votes.

The result? A new axis of convenience—not ideological, but strategic.

Ukraine Holds, but Waits for the West

On the battlefield, Ukraine’s position remained steady but strained.

  • Russian forces launched limited offensives in Avdiivka and Kupiansk, gaining ground but suffering heavy losses
  • Ukrainian troops held key frontlines, but lacked air cover and long-range strike capability
  • Kyiv’s calls for:
    • F-16 jets
    • Additional HIMARS
    • Anti-drone systems
      grew louder

The EU approved a €50 billion multi-year support package, but American aid faced another delay in Congress.

Zelenskyy warned:

“Our resistance depends not just on courage, but on consistency from our friends.”

The Middle East Flashpoints Multiply

The Middle East remained volatile:

  • Israel–Hezbollah clashes escalated along the northern border, with drone exchanges and artillery shelling
  • In Gaza, intermittent airstrikes resumed following renewed rocket fire from Islamic Jihad
  • In Iraq, U.S. bases came under drone attacks by Iranian-backed militias, leading to retaliatory strikes near Baghdad

Western diplomats feared a regional war, one that would further divide attention and resources from Ukraine.

Global Economic Tremors Continue

The global economy showed signs of fragility:

  • Oil prices surged past $110 per barrel due to Iran tensions and Russian export limits
  • Food prices remained unstable, with Russian strikes targeting Ukrainian grain silos and ships in Odesa
  • The World Bank warned of:
    • Recession risk in Europe
    • Stagflation in Latin America
    • Debt defaults in parts of Africa

The G7 Summit (June 2024), held in Canada, focused on:

  • Supply chain resilience
  • Sanctions enforcement
  • Technological sovereignty against Chinese and Russian influence

Yet unity was harder to maintain, with Italy and Japan urging caution on further escalation.

Conclusion: Multipolar Pressures and Strategic Patience

By mid-2024:

  • Iran was edging toward nuclear breakout
  • China was tightening its grip around Taiwan
  • Russia was exploiting global distraction to entrench its position in Ukraine and beyond
  • Ukraine was fighting hard—but relying on Western stamina

The Eagle faced a three-front pressure test, while the Bear grew more reliant on Beijing and Tehran.

The next phase would not be decided by tanks or treaties alone—but by who could adapt, endure, and outlast in a fractured world.

References

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