Chapter 19: The Trump Return – Campaigns, Crises, and Global Shockwaves (July–August 2024)

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The Bear and the Eagle

Volume 3: Year Three – Unfinished Wars and Uncertain Worlds (2024–2025)

July – August 2024
Washington D.C. – Milwaukee – Kyiv – Moscow – Brussels – Beijing – Tel Aviv

In the summer of 2024, the world entered a period of political turbulence not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic. But this time, the tremor originated not in a virus—but in a man.

Donald J. Trump, the 45th President of the United States, had secured the Republican nomination once again.
His campaign platform was clear, populist, and pointed:

“I will end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. I will stop World War III. And I will stop Biden’s insanity.”
— Donald Trump, RNC Speech, Milwaukee, 15 July 2024

For allies abroad and adversaries alike, the message was unmistakable: the Eagle might soon change its flight path again.

Republican National Convention: Milwaukee 2024

Held from July 15–18, the Republican National Convention (RNC) formally nominated Trump as the GOP candidate. His choice for running mate stunned many: Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio, a populist nationalist and critic of foreign entanglements.

The RNC platform included:

  • Immediate halt to “unaccountable” military aid to Ukraine
  • Withdrawal from “forever alliances” unless “they pay their fair share”
  • Reassessment of U.S. participation in NATO, the UN, and climate treaties
  • A new doctrine of “American Strength, American Soil”

The crowd chanted:

“America First—Again!”

Within 48 hours, markets jittered. Diplomats scrambled. And Europe braced for what many feared: another rupture in the transatlantic bond.

Ukraine Reacts: Alarm and Acceleration

In Kyiv, the reaction was urgent:

  • President Zelenskyy called an emergency war council
  • Ukraine accelerated diplomatic overtures to:
    • France and Germany (seeking bilateral arms guarantees)
    • Japan and South Korea (for technological assistance)
    • UK and Poland (to establish alternative NATO-like compacts)

Zelenskyy also scheduled a live address to the U.S. Congress, warning:

“If you stop supporting us, you stop defending yourselves. We are the shield.”

Ukrainian military commanders pushed for:

  • Fast-tracking of F-16 jet deployments
  • Clearance for use of U.S.-supplied weapons on targets inside Russia
  • A summer push to liberate strategic towns like Robotyne and Chasiv Yar

The strategy was clear: achieve irreversible momentum before November.

Russia Smells Opportunity

In Moscow, Trump’s re-nomination was met with near-celebration on state television:

  • RT and Channel One ran headlines such as: “The American Empire Collapses Into Itself”
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated: “Russia does not interfere in other nations’ elections. But we do observe with interest those who pursue peace.”

Behind the scenes, intelligence reports indicated:

  • Russian cyber units ramped up influence operations in key U.S. swing states
  • Wagner-linked networks in Africa were used to test disinformation campaigns
  • Russian elites privately expressed belief that a Trump victory would mean:
    • Sanctions relief
    • De facto freezing of Ukraine’s NATO prospects
    • Recognition of Russia’s territorial gains under a “peace deal”

Putin, for his part, remained publicly reserved—waiting for the game to play out.

Europe’s Strategic Panic

Across Brussels, Berlin, Paris, and Warsaw, leaders met in closed-door sessions.

  • The EU Defence Council convened an extraordinary summit on 26 July
  • Plans were set in motion for:
    • A European Defence Fund expansion
    • Joint drone and artillery manufacturing hubs in Poland and Czechia
    • Creation of a continental “rapid reaction corps” independent of U.S. command

Macron warned:

“Europe can no longer depend on the will of American voters.”

Scholz was more measured, calling for “strategic continuity regardless of personalities.”

But the mood in Europe was anxious. If Trump returned, what would he do to NATO, to Ukraine, to the EU’s fragile cohesion?

China’s Quiet Moves

In Beijing, Trump’s rise was seen as a double-edged sword:

  • On the one hand, Trump had:
    • Weakened traditional U.S. alliances during his first term
    • Withdrawn from multilateral climate and trade deals
  • On the other, Trump had:
    • Launched the U.S.–China trade war
    • Blamed China for COVID-19
    • Expanded tariffs and tech sanctions

As a result, China:

  • Boosted military patrols near Taiwan, testing U.S. reaction
  • Sent high-level envoys to Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia to build soft power coalitions
  • Invested heavily in new African mineral corridors for chip manufacturing autonomy

Beijing’s posture:
Patient acceleration, assuming American internal chaos would yield strategic gain.

Global Markets and Strategic Uncertainty

The world economy responded with:

  • Volatility in currency markets, especially the Euro and emerging economies
  • Gold prices rising to $2,250/oz—a 12-month high
  • Investors shifting from tech to defence stocks and energy hedges

Geopolitical analysts issued stark warnings:

  • CSIS: “Trump’s rhetoric emboldens revisionist regimes”
  • Chatham House: “NATO’s future now lies more in Warsaw than in Washington”
  • RAND Corporation: “Prepare for a world where the U.S. swings between commitment and retreat every four years”

Conclusion: The World Holds Its Breath

As August ended:

  • Ukraine’s soldiers fought with urgency and fear
  • Europe braced for strategic abandonment
  • Russia waited for November like a second front
  • China watched—not intervening, but preparing

The Eagle, split between two presidents—one present, one potential—was distracted.
The Bear, bruised but calculating, was adapting.

And the world realised:
2024 would not merely elect a president.
It might redraw the global map.

References

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