Chapter 21: Election Fallout – The World Reacts (Nov–Dec 2024)

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The Bear and the Eagle

Volume 3: Year Three – Unfinished Wars and Uncertain Worlds (2024–2025)

November – December 2024
Washington D.C. – Kyiv – Brussels – Moscow – Beijing – Tel Aviv – Riyadh

The world held its breath on Tuesday, 5 November 2024, as the United States of America conducted its 59th presidential election. But the suspense did not end when polls closed. What followed was a political aftershock that rippled across every continent, rattling allies, energising adversaries, and testing the strength of institutions at home and abroad.

As the dust settled, the geopolitical map had not yet changed—but the atmosphere had.
The Eagle, once assured, now stood divided, and The Bear, still embattled, prepared to strike where uncertainty reigned.

The Result: A Contested Trump Victory

With a turnout surpassing 158 million votes, the election yielded:

  • Donald Trump: 49.6% (306 electoral votes)
  • Joe Biden: 48.8% (232 electoral votes)
  • Third-party & write-ins: 1.6%

But the result was immediately contested in:

  • Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, where Democrats cited:
    • Irregularities in mail-in ballot handling
    • Allegations of voter suppression in urban districts
    • Legal challenges over ballot counting extensions

Trump declared victory before final certifications, stating:

“The people have spoken. The Deep State tried to stop us, but we won again—big time.”

President Biden, addressing the nation on 6 November, said:

“Every vote must be counted. We will not let democracy be rushed or hijacked.”

Protests broke out in Atlanta, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington D.C.
Clashes between pro-Trump demonstrators and counter-protesters led to over 230 arrests in the first week after the election.

International Reaction: Shock and Realignment

Allies responded with strategic caution:

  • Germany and France delayed issuing formal congratulations
  • The UK offered a neutral statement, promising “close partnership with whichever leader is certified”
  • Poland, Hungary, and Israel were the first to congratulate Trump, seeing opportunity in his nationalist worldview

In Moscow, the Kremlin celebrated openly:

  • Putin congratulated Trump in a televised message, stating: “The American people have chosen leadership that understands the value of sovereignty and peace.”
  • Russian state media described the result as “a turning point against Western imperialism.”

In Beijing, the tone was quieter, but strategic. The Foreign Ministry stated:

“We welcome stable and respectful dialogue with the new American leadership.”

But inside the Politburo, analysts calculated the opportunity to expand influence in the Pacific, particularly as the U.S. drifted inward.

Ukraine: Panic and Plan B

In Kyiv, the reaction was immediate and grim:

  • Zelenskyy summoned military and diplomatic leaders for a 72-hour emergency summit
  • Ukrainian intelligence warned of:
    • A possible Russian winter offensive, aiming to retake Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia
    • Decreased U.S. arms shipments as political handovers delayed logistics

Zelenskyy’s public message was defiant:

“America’s elections change presidents. But our freedom does not depend on personalities. It depends on courage—and allies who remember why they are allies.”

Privately, Ukraine accelerated:

  • Bilateral defence pacts with the UK, France, and Poland
  • Drone and artillery manufacturing inside Lviv and Dnipro
  • Fortification of critical energy infrastructure ahead of the winter blitz

Trump’s Transition Team Signals Foreign Policy Shift

Within days of claiming victory, Trump’s aides leaked early foreign policy proposals:

  • A “Peace Plan” for Ukraine involving:
    • Ceasefire lines as of November 2024
    • NATO freezing its enlargement
    • Sanctions relief for Russia if it “halts aggression”
  • A “NATO Reform Package”:
    • Demanding 4% defence spending from all member states
    • Threatening to pull U.S. forces from Germany and Italy if targets are not met
  • Trade tariffs on Chinese goods reinstated at 2020 levels, with added restrictions on AI chips and rare earth metals

The message: The Trump Doctrine was back—bolder, faster, and more unilateral.

The Middle East: Realignment and Risk

Sensing a change in American posture, regional actors moved quickly:

  • Saudi Arabia announced a new arms deal with China, including drone production and joint training
  • Iran resumed uranium enrichment at Fordow beyond the 90% threshold, prompting a UN emergency session
  • Israel escalated strikes against Iranian proxies in Syria and Lebanon, anticipating reduced American restraint

Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department delayed confirming envoys, leading to a temporary diplomatic vacuum in Baghdad, Amman, and Beirut.

Global Markets: Short-Term Euphoria, Long-Term Anxiety

Markets reacted with short-term optimism:

  • Defence stocks surged (Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman)
  • Oil prices briefly dipped, anticipating new U.S. shale expansion under Trump
  • Wall Street welcomed deregulation talk, with the Dow Jones surpassing 39,000

But analysts issued long-term warnings:

  • Goldman Sachs: “Rising geopolitical fragmentation risks decoupling in trade and defence.”
  • Chatham House: “Allies will hedge. Adversaries will test.”
  • Brookings Institution: “A transactional foreign policy creates unstable partnerships and emboldens revisionists.”

Conclusion: A World in Flux

As 2024 came to a close:

  • Donald Trump prepared to return to the White House, amid lawsuits, protests, and unprecedented global attention
  • Ukraine braced for a fight with fewer guarantees
  • Europe questioned the permanence of American leadership
  • Russia and China recalibrated their next moves—with growing coordination and reduced restraint

This was not just an election.
It was a reckoning—with the assumptions of the post-Cold War world, with the fragility of alliances, and with the very idea of democratic leadership in a multipolar age.

The Bear had survived.
The Eagle was divided.
And 2025 promised to be the most dangerous year yet.

References

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