Chapter 22: Year Four Begins – Trump Inaugurated, Putin Resurges (January–February 2025)

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The Bear and the Eagle

Volume 4: Year Four – A Dangerous New Order (2025)

January – February 2025
Washington D.C. – Moscow – Kyiv – Brussels – Beijing – Tehran – Jerusalem

The dawn of 2025 was not greeted with celebration but with apprehension. Donald J. Trump’s second inauguration marked the beginning of a geopolitical shift that reverberated through every global capital. The war in Ukraine entered its fourth year, but this time under the cloud of changing American priorities. And in the shadows, Vladimir Putin made his move, emboldened by the disarray among Western powers.

The Eagle had returned—but not as before.
The Bear began to rise again—with claws sharpened and strategy refined.

Inauguration Day: Order, Protest, and Division

On 20 January 2025, Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States in a highly polarised ceremony marked by:

  • Record security presence after months of electoral tension
  • Large pro-Trump crowds, alongside organised protests in D.C., Los Angeles, and Boston
  • A speech that echoed populist themes: “America will no longer bleed for wars we don’t win. The world has changed—and so will we. Peace through strength, but strength at home first.”

Within the first week, the Trump administration:

  • Paused all new Ukraine-related arms transfers for “strategic review”
  • Ordered a Pentagon audit of NATO operations and spending
  • Announced withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement (again), and planned tariffs on EU green energy imports

The move drew sharp criticism from traditional allies but applause from nationalist parties across Europe and Asia.

Putin’s Winter Offensive: The Battle for Kharkiv

With Washington distracted by transition, Russia launched a new multi-axis offensive on 29 January 2025, focusing on Kharkiv Oblast, northeast Ukraine.

Key developments:

  • 70,000 Russian troops, supported by Wagner-style irregulars and Iranian drones, pushed toward Vovchansk and Kupiansk
  • Heavy shelling of civilian infrastructure, displacing over 120,000 Ukrainians within two weeks
  • Use of hypersonic missiles and electronic warfare to overwhelm Ukrainian radar and communications

Ukrainian forces, though resilient, lacked key resupplies of:

  • Patriot missile interceptors
  • 155mm NATO-standard shells
  • HIMARS systems, now backlogged pending U.S. authorisation

President Zelenskyy gave a midnight address:

“Our friends must decide: do they stand for freedom—or delay while Kharkiv burns?”

Europe Mobilises Amid U.S. Uncertainty

With American signals shifting, European states took charge:

  • Germany and France convened an emergency European Security Council
  • Poland and the UK announced a bilateral defence corridor to continue supplying Ukraine independently
  • The EU approved €100 billion in military and reconstruction aid through a new European Ukraine Facility (EUF)

French President Emmanuel Macron warned:

“We can no longer wait on Washington. The defence of Europe must be European.”

Meanwhile, Hungary blocked EU sanctions on Russia—again—demonstrating growing division within the bloc.

China and Iran Test Boundaries

As the U.S. reset its foreign posture, Beijing and Tehran moved quickly to exploit the strategic ambiguity.

China:

  • Increased naval presence around Taiwan, conducting a simulated blockade of Kaohsiung Port
  • Signed a $90 billion energy deal with Iran, sidestepping Western sanctions
  • Hosted a Global South Summit, advocating a “post-hegemonic world order” with 57 attending nations

Iran:

  • Announced it had surpassed 90% uranium enrichment, prompting fears of a nuclear threshold
  • Launched proxy attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq, wounding several personnel
  • Increased drone shipments to Russia, in exchange for satellite technology and economic support

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant issued a warning:

“We are nearing the point of no return with Iran. The next strike may not be surgical—it may be strategic.”

Biden’s Final Message and NATO’s Dilemma

In a farewell statement, Joe Biden, now in private life, urged:

“Do not let alliances fray. Do not let tyranny fill the vacuum. History does not forgive complacency.”

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg sought to hold the line:

  • Pushed for a NATO-Ukraine Defence Compact independent of the U.S.
  • Proposed a permanent NATO Eastern Command, headquartered in Kraków
  • Asked members to double down on cyber and hybrid threat preparation

But internally, NATO was rattled.
Without clear U.S. leadership, the alliance faced its most existential test since its founding.

Conclusion: The Fog of 2025

As February closed:

  • Trump’s foreign policy review continued, but its signals had already changed the global equation
  • Russia gained momentum, threatening to break Ukraine’s eastern defence ring
  • China tested the Indo-Pacific’s nerve, eyeing Taiwan more openly
  • Iran inched toward breakout, forcing Israel and Gulf states to the brink

And all the while, the Eagle was airborne again—but on a new trajectory, leaving allies wondering:

Was this the return of strength—or the start of retreat?

The Bear, bruised but bullish, seemed ready to rewrite the post-war order—one frozen trench, one cyberattack, one alliance rupture at a time.

References

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