Chapter 6: The Midterms, Mueller, and the Expanding Theatre (Late 2018–Early 2019)

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The Bear and the Eagle

Volume 1: The Unexpected Victory (2016–2017)*

November 2018 – March 2019
Washington – Moscow – Kyiv – Caracas – Beijing

The reverberations of the Helsinki Summit had not yet faded when the next act of the geopolitical drama began. What had been a two-man show between Trump and Putin now became a sprawling global theatre, with new flashpoints—Venezuela, Eastern Europe, the South China Sea—emerging under the long shadow of unresolved investigations and strategic polarisation.

As the Mueller probe neared completion, Trump’s political future and Russia’s long-term strategy were colliding on the world stage. The 2018 U.S. midterm elections would be a stress test for both domestic legitimacy and foreign influence.

The 2018 Midterms: Referendum on a Presidency

On 6 November 2018, Americans went to the polls for the first nationwide vote since Trump’s election. The results were mixed:

  • Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives, flipping 41 seats—their largest gain since Watergate.
  • Republicans strengthened their majority in the Senate by two seats.

Though not a total rebuke, the results signalled a shift: congressional oversight would intensify, especially regarding Russian interference and potential obstruction of justice.

The new Democratic-controlled House promptly revived Russia-related investigations, issuing subpoenas to Trump associates and reviewing intelligence briefings previously blocked by Republican leadership (House Intelligence Committee, 2019).

In Moscow, Russian officials downplayed the result. Yet state media suggested that U.S. domestic divisions remained Russia’s most valuable strategic asset. “Gridlock is good,” one RT commentator quipped.

Mueller Tightens the Net

As 2018 drew to a close, Robert Mueller’s team had indicted or secured guilty pleas from 34 individuals and three companies, including:

  • Paul Manafort, former Trump campaign chairman (guilty of conspiracy and financial crimes linked to pro-Russian Ukrainian politicians)
  • Michael Cohen, Trump’s personal lawyer (pleaded guilty to lying to Congress about Trump Tower Moscow negotiations)
  • Roger Stone, longtime Trump adviser (charged in January 2019 for obstruction and witness tampering in connection with WikiLeaks coordination)

Each case edged closer to Trump’s inner circle, yet none produced direct charges of criminal conspiracy with Russia.

On 22 March 2019, Mueller submitted his final report to Attorney General William Barr. The public did not yet know the details, but in the Kremlin, the mood was one of quiet satisfaction. Putin had weathered two years of U.S. investigation without yielding policy, territory, or allies.

Global Ripples: Venezuela and the Proxy Fronts

While Washington fixated on Mueller, the Kremlin acted elsewhere. In Venezuela, President Nicolás Maduro—an increasingly authoritarian leader—faced mass protests and international pressure to step down. The U.S. recognised opposition leader Juan Guaidó as interim president.

Russia moved swiftly.

  • In December 2018, two Russian Tu-160 nuclear-capable bombers landed in Caracas, a pointed gesture reminiscent of Cold War brinkmanship (Reuters, 2018).
  • Russian troops and military contractors were deployed to support Maduro’s regime.
  • State-owned Rosneft continued to invest in Venezuela’s collapsing oil sector, consolidating Russian leverage.

For Moscow, Venezuela was not just an ally—it was a geopolitical bargaining chip, a Western hemisphere flashpoint to counterbalance U.S. pressure in Europe and the former Soviet space.

Putin’s strategy was clear: while the West debated law and norms, Russia played for position and durability.

NATO’s Eastern Edge and Cyber Escalation

In Eastern Europe, NATO intensified its forward deployments in Poland and the Baltics. Exercises like “Trident Juncture”, held in late 2018, were the largest NATO war games since the 1980s—featuring 50,000 troops, 250 aircraft, and 65 vessels from 31 nations (NATO, 2018).

Moscow responded with equal force:

  • Massive Russian drills, including Vostok 2018, showcased coordination with China, signalling an evolving Sino-Russian alignment.
  • Russian cyber intrusions targeted Western think tanks, research institutes, and EU diplomatic missions (Microsoft Threat Intelligence, 2019).

Putin’s message was not subtle: Russia was not isolated. In fact, it was adapting faster than its Western critics.

The Mueller Report (Summary Only)

On 24 March 2019, Attorney General Barr released a four-page summary of the Mueller Report. The key takeaways:

  • No conspiracy or coordination between the Trump campaign and Russian operatives “despite multiple offers from Russian-affiliated individuals.”
  • On obstruction of justice, Mueller declined to reach a prosecutorial judgment, stating: “If we had confidence after a thorough investigation that the president clearly did not commit obstruction of justice, we would so state.”

Trump declared “Total EXONERATION!” on Twitter. But Mueller’s language was more nuanced—carefully worded, institutionally restrained.

The full redacted report, released weeks later, would tell a more complex story.

Putin’s Calculus: Mission Accomplished?

By spring 2019, Putin had achieved several objectives:

  1. Divided the West – NATO was intact but politically fragile.
  2. Survived sanctions – Though the Russian economy stagnated, Putin’s domestic control remained absolute.
  3. Shifted global attention – From election meddling to great power competition.

Most of all, the Trump era had delegitimised America’s moral leadership on the global stage. From Helsinki to Charlottesville, from family separations to attacks on the press, Putin could now point to American inconsistency as proof of Western hypocrisy.

As Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov put it at a security forum in Moscow:

“The West no longer has the monopoly on defining what is democracy and what is not.”
— Lavrov, March 2019 (RIA Novosti, 2019)

References

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