Chapter 9: January 6, Navalny, and the Winter of Reckonings (2021)

, , ,

The Bear and the Eagle

Volume 2: The Biden–Xi Reset or Rivalry (2021–2022)

January – June 2021
Washington – Moscow – Berlin – Geneva – Kyiv

2021 began with two symbolic moments—one in Washington, the other in Moscow—that would define the direction of East–West relations in the post-Trump era.

In America, democracy itself was physically attacked by domestic insurrectionists.
In Russia, opposition was poisoned, arrested, and crushed before it could grow.

These were not isolated national dramas. Together, they signalled a new era of global confrontation—not between nations alone, but between competing visions of truth, power, and political legitimacy.

The Capitol Insurrection – 6 January 2021

As Congress prepared to certify Joe Biden’s victory, thousands of Trump supporters, inflamed by months of false claims of election fraud, gathered in Washington, D.C. What began as a protest morphed into a violent breach of the U.S. Capitol.

Chanting “Stop the Steal,” rioters broke windows, stormed chambers, and temporarily halted the certification of electoral votes. Five people died, including Capitol Police officer Brian Sicknick.

Donald Trump, hours after the assault began, issued a muted video telling rioters to go home—while repeating that the election was stolen. Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube suspended or banned his accounts in the aftermath.

For America’s allies, the scenes were shocking.
For Vladimir Putin, they were useful.

Russian state television aired wall-to-wall coverage, contrasting the “chaos of U.S. democracy” with the “stability of Russian governance.” Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called the event “an internal affair” but added:

“The American electoral system is archaic and does not meet modern democratic standards.”
— Lavrov, January 2021 (TASS, 2021)

Navalny Returns and Is Imprisoned

Just two weeks after the U.S. Capitol riot, Alexei Navalny, Russia’s most prominent opposition leader, returned to Moscow after recovering from a Novichok poisoning in Germany. The world watched as his plane was diverted mid-flight, and he was arrested at passport control.

Mass protests erupted across over 100 Russian cities, drawing tens of thousands despite sub-zero temperatures and police crackdowns.

The Kremlin responded with:

  • Mass arrests (over 11,000 by early February)
  • A ban on Navalny’s organisations, labelling them “extremist”
  • Blocking investigative videos, including Navalny’s viral documentary on Putin’s Black Sea palace, which garnered over 100 million views on YouTube

The Biden administration condemned the repression.
On 2 March 2021, the U.S. imposed new sanctions targeting seven senior Russian officials and chemical weapons entities under the Chemical and Biological Weapons Control Act (U.S. Treasury, 2021).

Putin, unsurprised, tightened the screws.

Biden’s First Moves on Russia

In his first foreign policy speech as President, Joe Biden declared:

“The days of rolling over in the face of Russia’s aggressive actions are over. We will not hesitate to raise the cost on Russia.”
— Biden, 4 February 2021 (White House, 2021)

Biden’s team signalled a return to multilateralism—rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement, reaffirming NATO’s Article 5, and restoring alliances damaged during the Trump era.

However, Biden’s approach to Russia balanced sanction pressure with strategic predictability. In April 2021, his administration:

  • Sanctioned Russian financial institutions and tech companies linked to election interference and cyberattacks
  • Expelled 10 Russian diplomats
  • Imposed limits on U.S. purchases of Russian sovereign debt

Yet Biden also proposed a face-to-face summit with Putin—signalling a return to managed confrontation over ideological unpredictability.

The Geneva Summit – 16 June 2021

In a villa on the shores of Lake Geneva, Biden and Putin met for over three hours. No joint press conference followed—a deliberate departure from the Helsinki fiasco of 2018.

Key issues discussed:

  • Strategic arms control – Renewal of the New START Treaty, extended by five years in February.
  • Cybersecurity – Following the SolarWinds and Colonial Pipeline cyberattacks, Biden warned Putin of retaliation if critical infrastructure was targeted again.
  • Human rights – Biden raised Navalny’s imprisonment, calling it “a moral responsibility of free nations.”

Putin dismissed the allegations and deflected by referencing American police brutality and January 6.

“You have many problems of your own. The Capitol was not stormed by Russians, after all.”
— Putin, Geneva Press Conference, 2021

Despite few tangible breakthroughs, the Geneva Summit re-established diplomatic channels and reduced immediate tensions. But beneath the civility, the ideological rift had only deepened.

Eastern Europe Smoulders

While Biden and Putin shook hands in Switzerland, Russia escalated pressure on Ukraine.

  • In April 2021, Russia deployed over 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s eastern border, the largest mobilisation since 2014 (NATO, 2021).
  • Russia increased passport issuance in Donetsk and Luhansk, further integrating the separatist regions into its sphere.
  • Navalny’s arrest removed the last major legal domestic check on Kremlin aggression.

Though war was avoided that spring, the signs were clear: the next phase of the Ukraine crisis was nearing.

Conclusion: The Twin Reckonings

  • America faced a reckoning over truth, democracy, and accountability, where one party no longer accepted the legitimacy of defeat.
  • Russia faced a reckoning over dissent, longevity, and repression, where power no longer needed consent to function.

And yet, both nations mirrored each other in eerie ways—each wrestling with the ghosts of empire, vulnerability, and destiny.

The eagle and the bear had survived the storm.
But neither had emerged unchanged.

References

Home