Muslim-Majority Countries

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Population, and Nuclear Capabilities: An Academic Analysis

1. Introduction

Islam is the world’s second-largest religion, with approximately 1.9 billion adherents, representing about 25% of the global population (Pew Research Center, 2015). Muslim-majority countries span diverse regions, including the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. This article analyses Islam across three dimensions: (1) global Muslim population, (2) countries with Muslim-majority populations, and (3) nuclear capabilities of Muslim-majority countries. The aim is to provide a comprehensive, evidence-based overview highlighting Islam’s demographic distribution and its intersection with strategic military power.

2. Methodology

Scope:
Muslim-majority countries are defined as those where >50% of the population identifies as Muslim, based on data from Pew Research Center (2015) and CIA World Factbook (2023). Nuclear capability data derive from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) (2024) and Arms Control Association (2025).

Data Sources:

  • Pew Research Center (2015) for demographic data.
  • CIA World Factbook (2023) for country religious composition.
  • IAEA (2024) and Arms Control Association (2025) for nuclear capabilities.
  • Cordesman (2021) for geopolitical analysis.

Definitions:

  • Muslim-majority countries: Nations with >50% Muslim populations.
  • Nuclear capabilities: Confirmed nuclear weapons or active civilian programmes with proliferation potential.

3. Analysis

3.1 Global Muslim Population

The global Muslim population stands at approximately 1.9 billion (Pew Research Center, 2015), divided into two main branches:

  • Sunni Islam: ~85–90% of Muslims (~1.6 billion).
  • Shia Islam: ~10–15% of Muslims (~250 million).

Major population concentrations include:

  • South Asia: Pakistan, India (large minority), Bangladesh.
  • Southeast Asia: Indonesia (largest Muslim population), Malaysia.
  • Middle East & North Africa: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa: Nigeria (roughly equal Muslim-Christian split), Sudan.

Population growth is strongest in Africa and parts of Asia due to high birth rates, while growth is slower in the Middle East (Pew Research Center, 2015).

3.2 Muslim-Majority Countries

Muslim-majority countries are spread across several regions:

RegionKey CountriesMuslim %
Middle East & North AfricaSaudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco>90% in most
South AsiaPakistan, Bangladesh>90%
Southeast AsiaIndonesia, Malaysia, Brunei>60%
Central AsiaUzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan>80%
Sub-Saharan AfricaSudan, Somalia, Senegal, Mali>90%
EuropeAlbania, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina~50–90%

Key examples:

  • Indonesia: Largest Muslim population (~230 million, ~87% of population) (Pew Research Center, 2015).
  • Pakistan: ~200 million Muslims (~96% of population).
  • Bangladesh: ~150 million Muslims (~90% of population).
  • Egypt: ~90 million Muslims (~90% of population).
  • Iran: ~83 million Muslims (~99.5% of population, predominantly Shia).
  • Turkey: ~75 million Muslims (~98% of population, officially secular).
  • Nigeria: ~100 million Muslims (~50% of population).
3.3 Nuclear Capabilities of Muslim-Majority Countries

Among Muslim-majority countries, only Pakistan possesses confirmed nuclear weapons:

  • Pakistan:
    • Nuclear Arsenal: Estimated ~170 warheads (Arms Control Association, 2025).
    • Status: Non-NPT signatory, developed nuclear weapons outside the Treaty framework.
    • Delivery Systems: Ballistic missiles (Shaheen series), aircraft delivery.
    • History: Conducted nuclear tests in 1998 (Chagai-I and Chagai-II) in response to India’s nuclear tests.

Other Muslim-majority countries with active or suspended nuclear programmes:

  • Iran:
    • Status: Civilian nuclear programme with enrichment capability; under Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) constraints until US withdrawal in 2018; not confirmed to have nuclear weapons (IAEA, 2024).
    • Capabilities: Uranium enrichment to ~60%, below weapons-grade (>90%) but of proliferation concern.
  • Turkey:
    • Status: No indigenous nuclear weapons; hosts ~50 US B61 nuclear bombs under NATO nuclear sharing at Incirlik Air Base (Kristensen & Korda, 2023).
    • Capabilities: No independent control over nuclear weapons.
  • Saudi Arabia:
    • Status: No confirmed weapons; civilian nuclear ambitions; alleged exploration of nuclear hedging options (Cordesman, 2021).
  • Egypt:
    • Status: Civilian research reactors; no weapons programme.
  • Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia:
    • Status: No nuclear weapons or significant civilian enrichment capabilities.

4. Discussion

The nuclear capabilities of Muslim-majority countries are limited. Pakistan remains the only confirmed Muslim-majority nuclear power, driven by regional security dynamics with India (Sagan, 1997). Iran’s enrichment programme raises proliferation concerns but has not resulted in weaponisation as of 2025 (IAEA, 2024). Turkey’s nuclear hosting under NATO does not confer independent nuclear status.

This contrasts sharply with Christian-majority nuclear states (e.g. USA, Russia, France, UK), highlighting the geopolitical distribution of nuclear capabilities as a function of economic development, military-industrial capacity, regional security imperatives, and historical trajectories rather than religious affiliation per se (Cordesman, 2021).

5. Conclusion

Muslim-majority countries comprise approximately 50 nations across the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and parts of Europe, with Islam representing ~25% of the global population. Pakistan is the only Muslim-majority country with confirmed nuclear weapons (~170 warheads). Iran maintains enrichment capabilities but lacks nuclear arms. Turkey hosts US nuclear weapons under NATO sharing without independent control. The concentration of nuclear capabilities in a single Muslim-majority country reflects strategic decisions driven by regional security rivalries rather than religious or civilisational factors.

References

  • Arms Control Association. (2025). Nuclear Weapons: Who Has What at a Glance. Available at: https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat [Accessed 28 June 2025].
  • CIA World Factbook. (2023). Country Profiles. Available at: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/ [Accessed 28 June 2025].
  • Cordesman, A. H. (2021). Iran and Saudi Arabia: Tensions and Conflict in the Gulf. Center for Strategic and International Studies. Available at: https://www.csis.org [Accessed 28 June 2025].
  • International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). (2024). Safeguards Implementation Report 2024. Available at: https://www.iaea.org [Accessed 28 June 2025].
  • Kristensen, H. M., & Korda, M. (2023). United States nuclear weapons, 2023. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 79(1), 36-61.
  • Pew Research Center. (2015). The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050. Available at: https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2015/04/02/ [Accessed 28 June 2025].
  • Sagan, S. D. (1997). Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb. International Security, 21(3), 54–86.

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