The Hidden Cycle Behind 1929, 1970s, 2000, 2008, 2020, and 2023–2025
1. Every Crisis Has a Trigger — But Triggers Fit Into Only 4 Categories
Across 100 years, all major crises fall into these four patterns:
A. Financial System Collapse
- 1929: banking panic
- 2008: toxic mortgages → global credit freeze
B. Cost/Price Shock (Inflation Crisis)
- 1970s: oil embargo
- 2023–25: energy and food shocks
C. Technology/Speculation Bubble
- 2000: dot-com bubble burst
D. External Shock / Global Shutdown
- 2020: pandemic
Every crisis fits one of these types — and sometimes more than one.
Understanding the type tells us the scale, the speed, and the solution.
2. Crisis Comparison by Root Cause
| Crisis | Type | Root Cause |
|---|---|---|
| 1929 | Financial collapse | Stock bubble + bank failures + no regulation |
| 1970s | Inflation shock | Oil embargo + broken monetary system |
| 2000 | Tech bubble | Speculation > real value |
| 2008 | Financial collapse | Toxic mortgages + credit freeze |
| 2020 | External shock | Pandemic shutdown |
| 2023–25 | Inflation shock | Energy crisis + supply chain failure |
Crises differ, but the root causes are predictable.
3. Crisis Comparison by Government Response
| Crisis | Speed | Tools Used | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1929 | Slow | Tight money, no bailouts | Made crisis worse |
| 1970s | Moderate | Wage/price controls, late rate hikes | Stagflation |
| 2000 | Moderate | Fed rate cuts | Mild recession |
| 2008 | Fast (after Lehman) | Massive bailouts, QE | Saved system |
| 2020 | Immediate | Stimulus, QE, energy support | Fast recovery |
| 2023–25 | Moderate-Fast | Rate hikes, subsidies | Inflation stabilised |
Modern crises tend to be managed better because of lessons from the past.
4. Crisis Comparison by Severity
A. Most dangerous: 1929 & 2008
Both were systemic failures:
- banks collapsed
- credit markets froze
- global economy threatened
These crises risked total collapse.
B. Most painful for citizens: 1970s & 2023–25
Inflation hits everyday life:
- food
- fuel
- housing
- wages
People feel these crises more personally.
C. Most sudden: 2020
Triggered by:
- no economic imbalance
- immediate halt of activity
D. Least damaging systemically: 2000
Stocks fell, but:
- banks were safe
- economy remained intact
- tech sector reorganised
5. Crisis Comparison by Recovery Time
| Crisis | Recovery Speed | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 1929 | Very slow (10+ years) | Wrong policies + no safety nets |
| 1970s | Slow (7–10 years) | Inflation psychology took time to break |
| 2000 | Moderate (2–3 years) | Tech industry matured |
| 2008 | Slow (5–8 years) | Debt overhang + austerity |
| 2020 | Extremely fast (1–2 years) | Artificial shutdown → artificial restart |
| 2023–25 | Moderate (2–3 years) | Inflation cooling + higher interest rates |
Recovery patterns reveal how policy determines duration.
6. What Repeats in Every Crisis
Despite different triggers, all crises share four repeating patterns:
Pattern 1: Overconfidence
Before every crisis, people believe:
- “This time is different.”
- “The old rules no longer apply.”
- “We solved economic cycles.”
This happened in:
- 1929 (stocks always rise)
- 2000 (internet will grow infinitely)
- 2008 (housing never falls)
- 2020 (supply chains are invincible)
- 2023 (inflation is transitory)
Human psychology doesn’t change.
Pattern 2: Hidden Fragility
Systems look stable until a shock exposes them.
Examples:
- 1929 → fragile banks
- 1970s → fragile oil dependency
- 2000 → fragile tech business models
- 2008 → fragile mortgage system
- 2020 → fragile supply chains
- 2023 → fragile energy markets
Crises reveal what was already weak.
Pattern 3: Panic and Overreaction
People and markets always:
- sell too fast
- withdraw money
- stop spending
- fire employees
Fear spreads faster than data.
Pattern 4: Transformation and Rebuilding
Every crisis leads to a major transformation:
| Crisis | Transformation |
|---|---|
| 1929 | Modern financial regulation |
| 1970s | Central bank independence + inflation doctrine |
| 2000 | Real internet infrastructure |
| 2008 | Strict banking regulation + QE |
| 2020 | Digital acceleration + remote work |
| 2023–25 | Energy independence + AI acceleration |
Crises don’t just destroy — they reshape.
7. What Makes Each Crisis Unique
Even though patterns repeat, each crisis has a “signature.”
1929 — Collapse of trust in the financial system
1970s — Collapse of monetary stability (inflation)
2000 — Collapse of expectations in technology
2008 — Collapse of mortgage system and global credit
2020 — Collapse of mobility and supply chains
2023–25 — Collapse of affordability in daily life
Every era has its own vulnerability.
8. The Big Lesson: Crises Shift From Internal to External
Old crises were internal:
- banking
- speculation
- monetary policy
- debt
Modern crises are external:
- pandemics
- energy shocks
- geopolitical wars
- supply chain collapses
- climate events (future)
This means economic forecasting is now less predictable, because the shocks come from outside the financial system.
9. The Most Important Insight: Crises Don’t Repeat — They Rhymeto
Mark Twain famously wrote:
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”
This applies perfectly to economic cycles.
- 1929 ≠ 2008, but they rhyme (bank panic → systemic collapse)
- 1970s ≠ 2023–25, but they rhyme (energy shock → inflation)
- 2000 ≠ AI boom, but they rhyme (speculation → correction)
- 2020 ≠ previous crises, but it rhymes with pandemics and wars
Understanding the rhyme lets us predict what comes next.
10. What This Comparison Tells Us About the Future (2030s)
The next major crisis will likely involve AI-driven economic disruption, because:
A. Overinvestment in AI → bubble (like 2000)
Billions flowing into AI startups with no revenue.
B. Technological displacement → labour shock
Automation replacing jobs faster than labour can shift.
C. Geopolitical competition → risk of conflict
AI race between US, China, Europe.
D. Infrastructure vulnerability
Cloud, chips, data centres — key points of failure.
E. Social inequality → political instability
AI winners vs AI losers.
F. Economic dependence on digital systems
A breakdown would cripple everything.
The future crisis will rhyme with:
- 2000 (tech bubble)
- 1970s (structural shock)
- 2008 (systemic interconnection)
But it will be new — uniquely shaped by AI.
11. Final Conclusion: Understanding Crises Means Predicting the Future
By comparing the last 100 years, we learn:
1. Crises are normal — not exceptions.
Every decade has one.
2. They follow patterns — not randomness.
Shocks → panic → adjustment → recovery.
3. They make the world stronger afterward.
Every crisis builds the foundation for the next boom.
4. The 2030s crisis will be driven by digital and AI forces.
And the world will adapt, just as it always has.