In the high-stakes game of 21st-century warfare, the most effective weapon is not a missile, but the manipulation of the enemy’s own decision-making process. As Xi Jinping purges his high command in January 2026, many intelligence analysts are asking: is the chaos a sign of weakness, or a masterclass in Reflexive Control (RC)?
I. The Art of “Voluntary” Error
First theorized by Soviet psychologist Vladimir Lefebvre and later adopted into Chinese military doctrine, Reflexive Control is the art of feeding an adversary carefully crafted information so that they “voluntarily” make a choice that favours the controller (NATO JWC, 2025).
- The Theory: Unlike simple camouflage, RC models the opponent’s logic. If Beijing knows the U.S. expects a “corrupt and divided” Chinese military, it may intentionally exaggerate its internal turmoil to induce a specific response: American overconfidence and delayed mobilization.
- The “Nuclear Leak” as Bait: The public nature of General Zhang Youxia’s “nuclear leak” investigation is suspicious. By allowing the world to believe the U.S. has China’s nuclear “playbook,” Beijing may be encouraging Washington to believe it has neutralized China’s deterrent—leading the U.S. to take risks it otherwise wouldn’t (Thomas, 2023).
II. Sun Tzu and the “Art of Lying”
The 2026 purge aligns perfectly with Sun Tzu’s dictum: “When capable, feign incapacity; when active, feign inactivity.” * Masking Readiness: While Western headlines focus on “Military Crisis” and “Night of the Long Knives,” the physical reality on the coast tells a different story. The “hollowing out” of the CMC creates a narrative of paralysis, yet the Shadow Command (Volume IV) continues to launch record-breaking sorties and deploy “Shuiqiao” landing barges (Times of India, 2026).
- The “Paper Tiger” Trap: By portraying the PLA as a “paper tiger” riddled with water-filled missiles and corrupt generals, Xi may be baiting Taiwan or the U.S. into a “preventative” move or a diplomatic provocation that Beijing can then use as a casus belli (justification for war).
III. The Cognitive Battlespace
Intelligence agencies in Washington and Taipei are currently locked in a debate over the “Truth” of the purge:
- The “Irrational Leader” Narrative: Some analysts argue that Xi has become “irrational,” purging even his closest allies (Stratfor, 2026). This narrative itself may be a form of RC, designed to make Western leaders fear a “madman” and thus offer concessions to avoid a nuclear escalation.
- The Reality Gap: While the political layer of the military is being dismantled, the operational layer is being streamlined. By removing “Combat Skeptics” like Zhang Youxia, Xi ensures that when the order to attack is given, there is no one left to provide a “reality check” or report failures to the outside world (The Strategist, 2026).
Summary: The Queen’s Sacrifice
In chess, a “Gambit” involves sacrificing a valuable piece to gain a winning position. By sacrificing General Zhang Youxia—his “Queen”—Xi Jinping has signaled to the West that his house is in disorder. If this is Reflexive Control, the goal is to keep the U.S. and Taiwan focused on Beijing’s internal “scandals” until the very moment the “Shadow Command” launches its first strike in 2026.
References
- The Battlespace of the Mind (2025) ‘Issue 41: Reflexive Control and Joint Warfare’, Joint Warfare Centre (NATO), 15 December.
- The Strategist (2026) ‘Xi’s military purge probably cuts imminent Taiwan war risk. Probably’, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 27 January.
- Stratfor (2026) ‘China’s High-Level Military Purge Raises Risk of a Miscalculation on Taiwan’, Worldview, 25 January.
- Thomas, T. L. (2023) Russian and Chinese Perspectives on Information Warfare. Fort Leavenworth: Foreign Military Studies Office.
- Times of India (2026) ‘Xi Jinping’s Sacred Games: Why China’s leader keeps purging PLA generals’, Times of India, 26 January.
- Vision Times (2026) ‘Xi Jinping’s Military Crisis: Reports of Zhang Youxia’s Detention Spark Night of the Long Knives Fears’, Vision Times, 25 January.