Aim: give you a compact, data-led picture of when funding gaps and shutdowns happened, how long they lasted, and what patterns emerge across parties and decades.
11.1 Definitions and sources
- Funding gap = period when no budget authority existed for (parts of) government.
- Shutdown = funding gap with ADA procedures (agencies closed, furloughs). Since 1980–81 (Civiletti opinions), most multi-day gaps follow full shutdown procedures.
- Primary chronology: CRS (RL34680, R47693), House Historian funding-gap table, and CBO for quantified economic impacts. (Congress.gov)
11.2 Long timeline (milestones)
| Era | Key points (selected) |
|---|---|
| 1976–1980 (pre-Civiletti practice) | Several funding gaps occurred but agencies often kept operating; shutdown procedures were not consistently enforced. (Context for the “modern era”.) (history.house.gov) |
| 1980–81 (Civiletti opinions) | DoJ opinions reinterpret ADA → agencies must cease non-excepted work during lapses. This defines the modern shutdown practice. (whitehouse.gov) |
| 1995–96 | Two lapses totalling 26 days (5 + 21) over deficit/spending fights (Clinton vs GOP Congress). (history.house.gov) |
| 2013 | 16 days over Affordable Care Act implementation. (history.house.gov) |
| 2018–19 | 35 days (longest until 2025) over border-wall funding; CBO: $11bn GDP hit, $3bn permanent; ~$18bn outlays delayed. (Congressional Budget Office) |
| 2025 | Began 1 Oct 2025; by 9 Nov 2025 reached day ~40, becoming the longest on record; core dispute = ACA premium-tax-credit extension. (Al Jazeera) |
For a full tabular list of each funding gap ≥1 day and whether shutdown procedures were followed, see the House Historian’s table. (history.house.gov)
11.3 By the numbers (modern era highlights)
- Frequency. Since 1976 there have been dozens of funding gaps; multi-day shutdowns are fewer but increasingly salient post-1990s. (CRS synthesis + House table.) (Congress.gov)
- Duration. Short technical gaps (hours to <3 days) are common; the heavy-impact cohort: 1995–96 (21 days), 2013 (16), 2018–19 (35), 2025 (40+). (history.house.gov)
- Economic cost. The only fully quantified episode is 2018–19: $11bn GDP reduction, $3bn permanently lost, $18bn outlays delayed. (Use as an anchor when scenarioing 2025.) (Congressional Budget Office)
11.4 Party control context (descriptive)
Shutdowns have occurred under split and unified government, but the risk increases with polarisation and tight margins. Who “gets blamed” varies by episode; 2013 centred on ACA rollout; 2018–19 on the border wall; 2025 on ACA subsidies. (Use with caution; this series keeps to factual attributions of the main sticking issue.) (Congress.gov)
11.5 Distribution over time (pattern notes)
- Pre-1980: gaps rarely induced large-scale furloughs.
- 1980s: several brief shutdowns as ADA practice bedded in.
- 1990s: 1995–96 becomes the archetype of a long, high-salience shutdown.
- 2010s: return of long shutdowns tied to signature policy disputes (ACA 2013; border 2018–19) with measurable macro costs.
- 2020s: 2025 surpasses previous length; focus shifts to health-insurance subsidies and the consequences of a federal data blackout for markets and policymaking. (Al Jazeera)
11.6 The “shape” of a long shutdown (empirical markers)
- Day 1–7: orderly shutdown, parks and museums close, furlough counts solidify; limited immediate macro effects.
- Day 8–21: payrolls missed, contractors laid off (no back-pay guarantee), rising local stress in federal hubs.
- Day 22–35: wider service degradation (permits, loans), aviation staffing frays; data releases stop, policymakers and markets “flying blind”.
- Day 36+ (2025): record territory; growing pressure from airlines, unions, governors, and chambers of commerce; reform talk (auto-CR) resurfaces. (TIME)
11.7 Snapshot table – Longest U.S. shutdowns
| Rank | Dates | Length | Main sticking issue | Selected impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oct–Nov 2025 | 40+ days | ACA premium-tax-credit extension | Prolonged data blackout; aviation strain warnings. (Al Jazeera) |
| 2 | 22 Dec 2018–25 Jan 2019 | 35 days | Border-wall funding | CBO: $11bn GDP hit; $3bn permanent loss. (Congressional Budget Office) |
| 3 | 16 Dec 1995–6 Jan 1996 | 21 days | Spending/deficit levels | Large furloughs; halted services. (history.house.gov) |
| 4 | 1–16 Oct 2013 | 16 days | Affordable Care Act rollout | Service interruptions; delayed data. (history.house.gov) |
11.8 What the trend implies
- The tail risk (very long shutdowns) has grown; once a dispute ties to a high-salience policy, durations stretch and macro harm rises.
- Quantified losses (2019 CBO) show permanent damage mainly via contractor income that is never reimbursed.
- Institutional fixes (auto-CRs; provisional-twelfths-style rules) would flatten the tail by removing agencies and households from the bargaining collateral pool. (See Part 10.)
References
- Congressional Budget Office (2019) The Effects of the Partial Shutdown Ending in January 2019. Washington, DC: CBO. Available at: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54937 (Accessed 9 Nov 2025). (Congressional Budget Office)
- Congressional Research Service (2025) Shutdown of the Federal Government: Causes, Processes, and Effects (RL34680, updated 30 Sept 2025) and Government Shutdowns and Executive Branch Operations (R47693, 2 Sept 2025). Washington, DC: Library of Congress. (Congress.gov)
- House of Representatives, Office of the Historian (n.d.) ‘Funding Gaps and Shutdowns in the Federal Government’. Available at: https://history.house.gov/Institution/Shutdown/Government-Shutdowns/ (Accessed 9 Nov 2025). (history.house.gov)
- Al Jazeera (2025) ‘US government shutdown enters 40th day: How is it affecting Americans?’, 9 November. (Al Jazeera)
- Reuters (2019–2025) coverage of shutdown length and disputes; and Investing.com live desk (2025) on ACA subsidy dispute. (Reuters)
- Time (2019) ‘“We’re Flying Blind”: The Shutdown Is Making it Harder for Economists to Understand the Shutdown’, 29 January. (TIME)