The Bear and the Eagle
Volume 2: The Biden–Xi Reset or Rivalry (2021–2022)
23–24 June 2023
Rostov-on-Don – Moscow – Voronezh – Belarus – St Petersburg
For 16 months, Russia’s war in Ukraine had defined the world’s headlines.
But in one dramatic 24-hour period, the battlefield shifted—from Ukraine to Russia itself.
The Wagner Group, once the Kremlin’s shadow army, turned its guns not on Kyiv, but on Moscow. Led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former convict turned warlord, the mutiny marked the gravest internal crisis of Vladimir Putin’s rule since 1999.
It was not just a rebellion.
It was a mirror held to the Kremlin—revealing the fault lines of its own militarism, corruption, and autocratic control.
Prelude: Tensions in the Russian War Machine
In the months following the Battle of Bakhmut, the relationship between Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defence had deteriorated into open hostility.
- Prigozhin accused Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov of incompetence and betrayal
- Wagner claimed they were starved of ammunition, deliberately undermined, and denied credit for battlefield victories
- In May and June, Prigozhin escalated his rhetoric, calling Russia’s leadership “traitors,” “thieves,” and “bastards”
While the Kremlin tolerated his verbal outbursts—beneficial propaganda to attract ultra-nationalist support—what came next shocked the world.
23 June 2023: The March Begins
Late on the evening of 23 June, Prigozhin posted a video alleging that the Russian army had launched a missile strike on a Wagner camp, killing many of his men (a claim never independently verified).
Within hours, Wagner forces:
- Seized Rostov-on-Don, Russia’s Southern Military District headquarters
- Surrounded key army facilities
- Launched an armoured column north toward Moscow, reportedly reaching within 200 kilometres of the capital
Videos surfaced of Russian helicopters being shot down, Wagner fighters being cheered in Rostov, and civilians stunned at the sight of private mercenaries marching through city centres.
24 June 2023: The Kremlin Reacts
Putin addressed the nation at dawn:
“This is a stab in the back of our country and our people. All those who prepared the rebellion will suffer inevitable punishment.”
— Vladimir Putin, National Address, 24 June 2023 (Kremlin.ru, 2023)
Russian media went into emergency mode:
- Telegram exploded with speculation of martial law
- Highways to Moscow were blockaded, and sandbags appeared at key government buildings
- Elite units, including the Rosgvardiya (National Guard), were deployed around the capital
The global community held its breath.
Could Russia collapse from within?
The Belarusian Deal
And then—the column stopped.
Just as Wagner approached Voronezh, Prigozhin announced a negotiated settlement:
- Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko had brokered a deal
- Prigozhin would halt his advance and go into exile in Belarus
- Wagner fighters would not be prosecuted
- Those who wished could sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defence
The crisis ended as abruptly as it began—but the damage was done.
Interpretations and Theories
Western intelligence agencies scrambled to understand:
- Was this a coup attempt, a negotiated power play, or Prigozhin testing Putin’s red lines?
- Did elements within the FSB or military quietly support or tolerate Wagner’s advance?
- Why did Putin—usually known for zero tolerance—allow Prigozhin to escape punishment?
Some analysts argued it was a calculated show of force by Prigozhin to preserve Wagner’s autonomy. Others suggested Putin feared splintering his war coalition and sought to delay internal reckoning.
The Fallout
In the days that followed:
- Wagner began relocating some fighters to Belarus, establishing camps near the Polish and Ukrainian borders
- Prigozhin resurfaced in St. Petersburg in July, then in Africa, and then—mysteriously—was killed in a plane crash on 23 August 2023 (Western officials believed it was likely an assassination)
- Putin later praised him as a “talented man who made serious mistakes” (BBC, 2023)
Meanwhile:
- Russia accelerated efforts to absorb Wagner’s operations under state control
- The Kremlin purged suspected loyalists, increased surveillance, and intensified internal propaganda
But the myth of invincibility was shattered.
Global Impact and Symbolism
Across the world, the mutiny sent a message:
- In Ukraine, morale soared—Russia was fighting itself
- In Washington, London, and Brussels, security briefings recalibrated risk assessments: Putin was strong, but no longer untouchable
- In China and India, silence prevailed. Strategic patience, not panic, defined their posture
For the first time since 1991, the stability of the Russian Federation had faced a serious armed challenge from within.
And it wasn’t NATO, the CIA, or Ukrainian partisans—it was a man Putin had created.
Conclusion: The Emperor Exposed
The Wagner Mutiny was not the end of Putin’s rule.
But it was the clearest evidence yet of the rot within.
A system built on fear, patronage, and parallel power structures had produced its own executioner—only to bargain with him.
As the Eagle watched the Bear wrestle itself, the war in Ukraine continued. But the inner front—the front inside Russia—was now open.
What once seemed like a monolith was showing cracks.
And history had just added another ghost plane to the Russian sky.
References
- BBC News. (2023, Aug 24). Prigozhin presumed dead in plane crash. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66599733
- Kremlin.ru. (2023, Jun 24). Putin’s Address on the Armed Rebellion. http://en.kremlin.ru
- ISW. (2023). Special Reports: Wagner Mutiny Timeline and Analysis. https://www.understandingwar.org
- Reuters. (2023, Jun 24). Wagner Group halts advance toward Moscow in Belarus-brokered deal. https://www.reuters.com