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Episode 1 – Venezuela’s “three sources of power”
Venezuela’s “three sources of power” after Operation Absolute Resolve 1.1 What happened, and why “arrest” did not settle authority The…
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Episode 2 – Succession law in practice
Articles 233–234, “temporary vs permanent absence”, and why legality alone does not transfer power 2.1 Why succession becomes the real…
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Episode 3 – The coercive state
Why the armed forces and security services determine whether any transition “works” 3.1 The central proposition Constitutional succession (Episode 2)…
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Episode 4 – Who controls the money?
Foreign intervention, recognition politics, sanctions architecture, and the “who controls the money?” problem 4.1 The central proposition In post-shock transitions,…
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Episode 5 — International law and legitimacy
Sovereignty, force, and “lawfare” after 3 January 2026 5.1 Why the legal argument matters (and why it is contested) The…
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Episode 6 — Money, assets, and “external sovereignty”
How reserves, oil proceeds, CITGO, and SDRs become the real bargaining chips 6.1 The central proposition In a contested transition,…
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Episode 7 — “Money inside the country”
Inflation, exchange rates, dollarisation, and why the central bank becomes a political battlefield 7.1 The central proposition When leadership is…
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Episode 8 — China’s oil-backed lending model
Repayment mechanics, disruption risk after 3 January 2026, and Beijing’s legal–financial playbook 8.1 The central proposition China’s leverage in Venezuela…
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Episode 9 — Ecuador, Sri Lanka, Zambia
Comparative “Debt-for-Resources / Infrastructure-for-Finance” Cases Purpose of this episode To understand what a “China-heavy” creditor profile can mean for a…
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Episode 10 — Venezuela’s decision-tree after the January 2026 rupture
Recognition, sanctions, oil-cash control, and debt work-out pathways 10.1 Why a “decision-tree” matters Venezuela’s problem is not a single crisis…