The Armenia–Azerbaijan Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh

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The Armenia–Azerbaijan Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh: Historical Dispute, Regional Tensions, and Prospects for Peace

Introduction

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh is one of the most protracted and volatile disputes in the South Caucasus. Rooted in competing national claims, ethnic identity, and post-Soviet instability, the conflict has resulted in multiple wars, ongoing diplomatic tensions, and widespread humanitarian consequences. Despite international mediation efforts, a durable peace remains elusive. This article analyses the historical background, key impediments to resolution, regional and global implications, international stances, and possible future trajectories for peace.

Historical Background

1. Soviet Legacy and Ethnic Tensions

Nagorno-Karabakh is a landlocked mountainous region internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but historically populated by an ethnic Armenian majority. Under Soviet rule, it was granted the status of an autonomous oblast within the Azerbaijani SSR.

In the late 1980s, as the Soviet Union weakened, tensions escalated when the regional Armenian leadership demanded unification with Armenia proper. This was met with fierce opposition from Azerbaijan, igniting inter-ethnic violence.

2. First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988–1994)

Following the USSR’s dissolution, full-scale war erupted between newly independent Armenia and Azerbaijan. By the war’s end in 1994:

  • Ethnic Armenian forces, backed by Armenia, had gained control of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding Azerbaijani districts
  • Approximately 30,000 people were killed
  • Nearly 1 million Azerbaijanis and Armenians were displaced

A Russia-brokered ceasefire was signed, but no final peace agreement was reached. Nagorno-Karabakh declared independence as the “Republic of Artsakh,” though it remained unrecognised internationally.

Persistent Barriers to Resolution

1. Disputed Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity

Azerbaijan insists on the restoration of its territorial integrity, including full control over Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia, on the other hand, historically supported the self-determination of the region’s Armenian population, though recent shifts in policy have complicated its position.

2. Demographic and Ethnic Identity

Nagorno-Karabakh’s population has been majority Armenian for over a century, and the region has strong cultural and religious ties to Armenia. However, displacement, war trauma, and demographic engineering have deepened ethnic divides.

3. Militarisation and Arms Build-up

Both nations have invested heavily in their militaries, particularly Azerbaijan, which has used oil wealth to modernise its arsenal. Recurrent border clashes and military posturing undermine diplomatic engagement.

4. Lack of Trust and Failed Peace Talks

Decades of failed negotiations under the OSCE Minsk Group—co-chaired by France, Russia, and the United States—have eroded public trust in diplomacy. Several attempted agreements have collapsed under political pressure or resumed violence.

Renewed Hostilities and Regional Shifts

1. Second Nagorno-Karabakh War (2020)

In September 2020, full-scale war resumed, resulting in:

  • Over 6,500 deaths in six weeks
  • Azerbaijani forces recapturing significant portions of territory, including Shusha (Shushi), a strategic city
  • A Russia-brokered ceasefire agreement (10 November 2020), placing Russian peacekeepers in the region and restoring some Azerbaijani control

This military victory significantly altered the balance of power, shifting regional dynamics in favour of Azerbaijan.

2. Blockade of the Lachin Corridor and 2023 Displacement

In 2023, Azerbaijan established a blockade on the Lachin Corridor, the only land route connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. This blockade led to:

  • Severe humanitarian shortages
  • A mass exodus of over 100,000 ethnic Armenians, effectively ending the Armenian presence in Nagorno-Karabakh
  • The dissolution of the self-declared Artsakh Republic in 2024

Regional and Global Consequences

1. Regional Power Realignment

  • Russia has maintained peacekeepers but faces waning influence due to its focus on Ukraine
  • Turkey has emerged as Azerbaijan’s most vocal and active ally, supplying drones and military training
  • Iran, sharing borders with both Armenia and Azerbaijan, is wary of shifting borders and increased Turkish-Israeli cooperation in the Caucasus

2. Humanitarian and Legal Implications

  • The displacement of ethnic Armenians has raised allegations of ethnic cleansing
  • International bodies have called for independent investigations, but limited access and geopolitical interests have prevented coordinated responses

3. Disrupted Infrastructure and Trade Corridors

The conflict jeopardises initiatives like the Zangezur Corridor and affects EU-led plans for Caspian energy transit routes, making regional integration more difficult.

International Stances

Azerbaijan

Firmly maintains its claim to sovereignty over all of Nagorno-Karabakh, viewing the 2020 victory as a restoration of territorial rights.

Armenia

While historically aligned with Nagorno-Karabakh’s autonomy, Armenia’s government under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has moved toward recognising Azerbaijan’s territorial claims, leading to domestic political backlash.

Russia

Seeks to retain regional influence as a mediator, but its credibility has weakened due to perceived passivity during Azerbaijani advances in 2023 and military entanglements in Ukraine.

Turkey

Strongly supports Azerbaijan’s military and diplomatic positions, framing the conflict as part of a broader Turkic alliance.

European Union and United States

Both support peaceful negotiations and humanitarian access, but geopolitical limitations and energy interests have led to measured responses.

Prospects for Resolution

1. Peace Treaty Negotiations

Efforts are underway to draft a comprehensive peace treaty, with EU and U.S. facilitation. However, disagreements over border demarcation, prisoners, and future autonomy models remain unresolved.

2. Confidence-Building Measures

Future peacebuilding could include:

  • Cross-border trade initiatives
  • Cultural exchange and historical reconciliation programmes
  • Mutual guarantees of minority rights and territorial integrity

3. Multilateral Frameworks

Reviving the OSCE Minsk Group or establishing a new international mechanism involving neutral states may improve mediation credibility.

Conclusion

The Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh encapsulates the intersection of nationalism, post-imperial legacies, and regional geopolitics. While Azerbaijan has effectively reasserted control over the territory, lasting peace remains uncertain, dependent on mutual concessions, international engagement, and a framework for coexistence. The future of the South Caucasus will hinge on whether both nations can transcend their historical grievances in favour of stability, integration, and reconciliation.

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